2012 PGA Picks

Picking a winner for the 2012 PGA Championship is a tall task, with several factors from wind, weather, past performance, and difficulty of the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island, creating a delectable stew of confusion, so let’s spoon it out and sift through.  The string of consecutive non-repeat major champions has hit 15 and will continue this week.  The principals:

Defending Open Champion Ernie Els was in poor form at RBC last week and missed the cut by three strokes.  No doubt some mental fatigue set in after the emotionally draining come-from-behind win at Lytham.  Hats off to him for living up to a play commitment if that’s why he was in the field.  His record in past PGAs is a mixed bag and I don’t like him this week.

Tiger Woods is struggling with a balky putter again and inconsistency with the flat stick is now the norm.  The three-time winner on tour this year has been in contention at all three majors but couldn’t close the deal.  Whether ahead, tied, or coming from behind, Tiger’s innate ability to dominate a golf tournament is still there but doesn’t reveal itself as often as it did in the past.  He may win a major again but not this week.

Defending champion Keegan Bradley is paired with Tiger for the first two rounds and after three rounds at Bridgestone is second in the field in GIR and third in putting.  Despite a ho-hum year, he’s got momentum, wants it bad, and will contend.

Jason Duffner’s last three tournaments in the U.S. include a first, second, and fourth.  He’s in excellent position after three rounds at Firestone and is a serious contender.  After last year’s playoff loss to Bradley at the Atlanta Athletic Club, a win at Kiawah would be sweet.

Rory McIlory seems to be in good form and is playing in the U.S. one week before a U.S. based-major.  Pattern seem similar?  Fooled me once already this year with the same ploy at St.Jude – U.S. Open, and I won’t be fooled again.  Rory’s out.

LukeDonaldLeeWestwood is the new two-headed monster for major underachievement.  I’d give Westwood the edge here because of the requirement for solid ball striking at one of the toughest courses in the world, but neither will win and frankly the repeated storyline of both in the majors is growing old.  Not this year for LDLW.

Trendy pick is Davis Love III.  He’s from the area, loves playing on Bermuda greens, and inevitably contends in a lot of tournaments close to home.  At 45th in the 2012 Ryder Cup standings, his chances of playing his way onto his own team have dwindled, but he’d be a great sentimental champion in this locale.

Final projections:

Winner of the Wanamaker Trophy and coupe de grace to an outstanding year:  Jason Duffner.

Runner up:  Keegan Bradley as the tournament has an eerie resemblance to last year with a close call but different result.

Third:  Davis Love makes a huge bid that just falters with the younger guys fighting it out on Sunday.

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About Brian Penn

Avid sports fan and golf nut. I am a lifelong resident of the Washington D.C. area and love to follow the local teams. Also worked as a golf professional in the Middle Atlantic PGA for several years and am intrigued by the game to no end. I love to play and practice and am dedicated to continual improvement.
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6 Responses to 2012 PGA Picks

  1. C. Baker says:

    I agree with your pick of Jason Dufner. I have become a big fan of him this year. He has a great game. I am also looking forward to Dufner playing in the Ryder Cup.

  2. Brian Penn says:

    Dufner has a great “stay in the moment” mentality and doesn’t let the inevitable ups and downs affect his approach. Should work very well in the majors. Thanks for the comment!

  3. I’m going to throw Stricker in the mix for this one just because of his short game. I played the Ocean Course last May and those sand areas they are calling “bunkers” are sneaky tough to get out of. Stickers scrambling and putter give him an advantage, plus I would like to see him win a major.

  4. Brian Penn says:

    I’m kinda mixed on Stricker. He’s obviously in excellent form with the second place finish at Bridgestone and has top 25s in his last five events. He doesn’t play the Florida swing the past few years and his only appearance this year was at The Players where he missed the cut. I’m thinking he favors the cool season playing surfaces and steers clear of Bermuda. Look at his putting and short game stats as the tournament develops to get a read on him. Thanks!

  5. travis says:

    surprised you have mentioned the wind and links-like nature of the course, and how that might suit the Aussies and South Africans … thoughts?

    • Brian Penn says:

      The forecast is for hot and humid weather with showers but not much wind. Probably will neutralize players favoring links conditions. Of the South African/Aussies in the field, I’m not too warm to Els for reasons stated earlier. Got a little better feeling about Retief Goosen who seems to be in better form and plays well in hot humid conditions. Anybody’s guess on Adam Scott and how he’ll rebound from his final round collapse at Lytham. Thanks!

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