Okay, here me out before making my reservation for a suite at St. Elizabeth’s. Right now the British bookmakers are sending the European Team off as an overwhelming 1:2 favorite in the 2014 Ryder Cup. These are the same guys who had Tiger Woods at 16:1 for the 2014 Open Championship, and those were phony odds. These are phony as well and are simply the reflection of the betting public’s irrational biases.
The miscalculation is being driven by the recent whippings administered by the Euros. Since 1985 they are sporting a dominating 9-4-1 record but this year will be different. A quick look at the data yields an interesting revelation. The secret to Euro success has been their team approach to competition. No individual is above the team. They also enjoy terminal underdog status and have leveraged the American’s penchant for individual play over team. Nobody epitomizes the “me first” mentality on the U.S. side more than Tiger Woods. Is there a more narcissistic player on the planet? The American’s have followed the lead of their best player and got caught up in the individual career achievement mentality, so much so that they struggle with the mindset of placing the team ahead of themselves.
Since 1985, the Euro’s hold a 58.5 to 53.5 advantage in points in foursomes (alternate shot) and a dominating 65.5 to 46.5 advantage in four balls – the two team formats. Even as they have been dominated, the U.S. has still been able to maintain a slight edge in singles play (84.5 points to 83.5). It’s clear they prefer singles to team. With Woods off the U.S. team the mindset will change. Forget about the big names on the Euro side, or lack of on the U.S. I can’t wait to see who the U.S. version of Ian Poulter is and I don’t think the Euro’s are comfortable in the role of overwhelming favorite. The huge underdog U.S. squad will get it done.
Throwing Tiger under the bus one more time, I’ll make my Final prediction: U.S. 14 1/2 – Europe 13 1/2.
How do you think this plays out?
5 thoughts on “The U.S. Will Win The 2014 Ryder Cup!”
I agree with much of this. No team can be counted as overwhelming favourites in the Ryder Cup, with the exception of the US Team in 1981. The European team isn’t a patch on that one either. Man for man this competition will go down to the wire. If you check out my blog ‘Statistical Analysis Says The USA Will Win The 2014 Ryder Cup’ backs up your points made above. There is no better time than now to start backing team USA.
I saw your statistical analysis and was amazed that the two teams were so close with the U.S. actually holding an edge. It would be interesting to know if the statistical analysis was close or called for a Euro win in 2012. Or with the Ryder Cup, do you just throw out the stats?
I think what it really shows, is that, if anything the Europeans have been considered underdogs for the last twenty years and always upped their game. Why will it be any different now that the USA is considered second favourites? I am fully expecting the Ryder Cup to generate a similar reaction from the Americans as it did from the Europeans during the 1990s! Still, in saying that I will cheering in every European putt!
I still think the Euro’s will triumph, especially because it is a links course, which the team are more used to than the Americans.
Pete, they are the favorites in everyone’s mind but I’m going with the upset this year. Can’t wait for the matches to begin. Thanks!