2017 British Open Picks

Picking a winner for the 146th Open / Open Championship / British Open at Royal Birkdale is even more confounding than deciphering the official name of this tournament.  Let’s just call it the world’s oldest major.

Field analysis is made difficult because of the recent trend of the world’s top players taking time off and trying to peak their performance around the majors.  That’s a by-product of the protracted year round scheduling problem on the PGA Tour (more on that coming in a future post).  With the exception of Phil Mickelson, Rickie Fowler, and Jordan Spieth, the top contenders don’t play frequently enough.  Yes, everyone is different but you can’t just show up once per month under the heat of competition and expect to generate consistent results.  Dustin Johnson played Memorial in May and the US Open in June and missed both cuts.  He’s coming off a back injury and nobody thinks he should play as much as Vijay Singh, but can DJ seriously be in winning form?  No way.  To draw a mediocre parallel, I’m in software development.  If I practiced my trade under the most stringent of conditions once per month, I’d suck at my job.  These guys should go hard from January to August (playing every two out of four weeks) and then shut down.

So let’s get down to business:  Rory McIlroy needs a session on the putting green with Dave Stockton Sr.  It’s so bad right now, he’s not even close to contending.  Jason Day‘s ball striking is in the crapper (what happened?)  Defending champion Henrik Stenson has missed five of his last six cuts and is looking to catch lightning in a bottle – nope.  Phil missed the US Open, then broke protocol by not playing in the Scottish Open, and finally parted ways with Bones.  That may be all the change he can handle at 47 years old and I don’t think it happens for him this week.  Hideki Matsuyama threw a scare into the field at the US Open with a strong Sunday finish and is going to get one soon, but it will be on U.S. soil.

Who’s ready?  Rickie Fowler.

Photo from Golfweek

He keeps finishing top-10 in the majors and plays often enough to stay sharp.  I think his conservative strategy in the majors of sometimes taking iron off the tee will play well at Birkdale, because you must drive it straight and then battle the wind from the fairway.  Forget playing out of the rough here.  Look for a tough battle with Justin Rose, who’s a horse for this course, Spieth, who’s tough in every major, and John Rahm, but Rickie will prevail.

Who is your pick for the Claret Jug?

 

 

145th British Open Championship Picks

I always thought that if Dustin Johnson was going to win a major, The British Open would be his first because the slower bumpy greens equalize the putting ability of the world’s greatest players.  Johnson is a notoriously mediocre putter especially during big clutch moments, but has suddenly turned the golf world on its head and is winning everything.  Having cleared his first major hurdle, is he now unstoppable?

The other big three (Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, and Jordan Spieth) all seem capable, but currently vulnerable.  Spieth is suffering from mechanical issues.  McIlroy hasn’t sorted out his putting, and Day had the WGC Bridgestone in control until an uncharacteristic late round collapse.  The pre-tournament betting line has all four at 8-1.  It’s going to be a wild ride so let’s sift through the morass and get you a winner.

It’s exciting when someone from the BPTNWAM list finally breaks through as DJ did at Oakmont.  The final round at The US Open had layers of intrigue.  DJ, Sergio Garcia, and Lee Westwood were all well positioned.  But alas, only one player can win it.  I liked the way Sergio finished (for a change).  He hung tough and didn’t choke.  He’s looking good to me this week.  Westwood was awful on Sunday and I have to believe that he didn’t believe enough in himself to play well under the gun.  Rapidly joining that class is Rickie Fowler.  I knew Rickie was done at Oakmont before the tournament started because he basically threw up his hands in the practice rounds and said (I’m paraphrasing) “I cannot putt these greens; they’re ridiculous.”   Haven’t heard anything from Rickie this week, which is a good thing, but the guy is in a slump and he doesn’t close well.  I need to see improvement before I even consider him for BPTNWAM membership.

The Open Championship always manages to tease us with an aging champion getting into contention, and sometimes gives us a winner, like Ernie Els in 2012 when Adam Scott  collapsed late at Lytham.  How about Greg Norman or Tom Watson?  How about Colin Montgomerie in 2016???  Could you see a Monty, Westy, and Sergio BPTNWAM threesome battling it out on Sunday for the Claret Jug?  No.

Back to reality.  This year’s champion will have to steel himself mentally, and has to relish playing in the wind and rain (it’s forecast to be wet the whole week).  Normally, I’d love someone who would leverage the adverse conditions against the field, someone who knows that bad weather culls the weak from the heard.  Someone like a Phil Mickelson.  But Lefty has run up against Father Time.  Not happening for him this week.

I see the winner coming from a group of six players.  The big four, Sergio, and Danny Willett will battle it out all week.  Willett plays great in Europe, has the major bonafides and should be able to leverage the home court advantage.  But he can’t sneak up on anyone any more.

Of these six, Day and Spieth have the best minds for the game.  Day for concentration and patience, Spieth for guts and grit.  It’s a battle of attrition, I’ll take guts and grit.  Jordan Spieth is your winner of the 145th Open Championship.  Let’s get it on!

 

2015 British Open Picks

Boy what I would give for a ticket to this year’s British Open Championship at St. Andrews.  The story lines are compelling, especially Jordan Spieth’s attempt to win the third leg of the Grand Slam.  Early odds have him as an overwhelming favorite now that his main competition, Rory McIlroy is injured.  The board (sans McIlroy) looks eerily similar to the pre-tournament  betting at the U.S. Open.  Spieth is the heavy favorite, and way ahead of Dustin Johnson, who’s at 12:1.  Again, these are not the actual win probabilities, but how the public has elected to wager their money.  Let’s sift through the data and get a smart pick for those who failed to cash in on Spieth at Chambers Bay.

St Andrews
from telegraph.co.uk

The principals:

Think Jordan Spieth needs more seasoning to win The Open?  This guy handles pressure better than anyone on the planet.  He putts better than anyone on the planet, and has more guts than anyone on the planet.  I’m pulling very hard for him this week but don’t think he closes the deal.  Why?  The Open, more than any other major, is susceptible to the come out of nowhere winners like Darren Clarke, Tod Hamilton, and Ben Curtis.  Also, some ageless contender like Tom Watson or Greg Norman (in their 50s) seems to make a serious run.  It’s clear, the slower greens are the equalizer and don’t require as much nerve to putt, which negates Spieth’s advantage.  I also don’t like that he’s playing John Deere in-lieu of the Scottish Open.  He should have made the trip early to get acclimated.  Make no mistake, he deserves the short odds and is playing the best in the world right now.  I’m hopeful he gets it done but just don’t see it.

Rory McIlroy;  very unfortunate timing on the ankle injury and will not play.  Last time out at St. Andrews, Rory finished 3rd in The Open, eight shots behind in the route perpetuated by Louis Oosthuizen.    Oosthuizen has a beautiful swing but only seems to be in contention in every third or fourth tournament.  Not this week.

Excellent value play is Adam Scott.  Scott has gone back to the long putter, had a solid U.S. Open, shooting 64 in the final round, and seems to have shaken off his early season doldrums by resigning Stevie Williams on the bag.  Williams was with Tiger Woods for both his Open Championship victories at St. Andrews which is a significant intangible.  The stars are aligned, and at 20:1 odds the smart money is backing the Aussie.

What to do with Dustin Johnson.  If anyone can forget the debacle at Chambers Bay it’s D.J.  Nothing seems to phase him, but that three-putt was a bad choke; worse than the grounded club debacle at Whistling Straits in the PGA.  Can he overcome?  He’ll either contend or totally collapse.  I think he contends and puts up a good fight.  If D.J. is going to win a major, it will be The Open on the slower greens.  I’m not feeling the closing power this week, though.

Sneaky long shot is Retief Goosen.  You can get him at 250:1 to win and I don’t see a victory in his future but would not rule out a top 10.  Goose is the perfect horse for this course despite his inconsistent play of late.

Interesting side note:  I’m watching Phil and Tiger head-to-head this week.  They’re both in the 25-30:1 range but trending in opposite directions, Phil is at the age where majors rarely are won.  He still has game but doesn’t seem to put four consecutive rounds together any more.  Tiger had a decent showing at Greenbriar in some very soft conditions.  Links golf with it’s precision ball placement off the tee doesn’t suit Tiger’s rebuild project.  If the wind gets up, it could get ugly.  I’m thinking Lefty takes him down.

So here we go, call your bookmaker.

Claret Jug winner:  Adam Scott

Runner Up:  Jordan Spieth

Third:  Dustin Johnson

Who are your picks at St. Andrews?

Adam Scott
from bbc.co.uk

 

 

2014 British Open Picks

Hoylake, from golfclubatlas.com

Picking a winner for the 2014 British Open Championship is an exercise in deciphering the actual probabilities of victory from the preferences of the betting public.  There is considerable money to be made betting against the current John Q trend lines.  Consider, U.S. Open Champion Martin Kaymer is at 20:1 in early action with Tiger Woods leaping ahead of him at 16:1.  Are you kidding?  Kaymer is in awesome form, has his head screwed on right, and is a multiple recent major winner.  The smart money is on him and Adam Scott.  Tiger looks about as well oiled as the 38-year old Huffy sitting in my garage with the chain off.  The stiffness and restricted back swing on display at the recent Quicken Loans National  should have Tiger in the 150:1 range.

Rory McIlroy is the pre-tournament favorite at 10:1, but doesn’t play well enough in this perennial home game and will not win it.  He is looking good in early action at the Scottish Open and we’ll be watching to see if the positive momentum he gained from Woz-gate changes his personal and professional performance around major time.

Could one of the B.P.T.N.H.W.A.M. contenders take it this year?  How do you officially get on this list?  Is it fair to keep someone on past the age of 40?  I think not, so Steve Stricker comes off at 47.  Of the five remaining principals, Henrik Stenson has been the closest and doesn’t appear to psych himself out and warrants considerable support.  Sergio Garcia has played well on this course but he doesn’t have the stones with the flat stick to ever win a major.  It’s not happening this week for Matt Kuchar, Dustin Johnson, or Jason Day.  Actually, Day has some good potential, but I’d like to see him  playing more frequently and try less to time his game around the majors.

So, when do we put Jordan Spieth on this list?  He’s clearly one of the best players in the world even if he still can’t order a beer with his wings at Hooters.  I’m a huge Spieth fan and like him for a top 10 but he’s too young for the list and will likely break through at The Masters or U.S. Open.

Dark horse look-outs:  Jim Furyk is at ease with himself again, is playing well, and contended on this venue in 2006.  Every year we see an older player make a move at The Open and this year it’s him.  Phil Mickelson has the mind and experience to win this, but different parts of his game go out of sync too frequently and I fear the age of Phil contending in every major is quickly vanishing.

Your 2014 British Open predictions:

Adam Scott:  Champion

Martin Kaymer:  Runner-up

Jim Furyk:  Sneaks into third

2013 British Open Picks

Back up the armored truck, get out your Muirfield money bags; here come your winning 2013 British Open picks!

It’s a good thing the official odds don’t reflect a player’s actual chance of winning and just the public’s appetite for spending, because the public is looking like a drunken sailor bidding up Tiger Woods as the favorite at 8/1.  He’s coming off an injury and his putting stroke has deserted him again.  Those waiting for the next big win to get back on the Jack Nicklaus record chase can keep waiting.

Did Phil “The Thrill” give us a great ride at the U.S. Open or what?  The difficult aspect of a Mickelson pick is the consistency component.  It’s simply not there, but what you get with Phil is good theater.  I’ve never liked him in the British Open, and except for his final round charge at Royal St. George’s in 2011, he’s been a major underachiever.  This week the roller coaster is heading downhill so keep your billfold in your pocket and Lefty off your board at 25/1.

U.S. Open champion, Justin Rose is suffering from burnout.  Even though I loved the way he finally conquered the unreasonably high expectations he’s dealt with since his miracle British Open finish in 1998, he’s a poor play at 18/1.  At Merion, he didn’t get too excited as he made clutch shot after clutch shot and stuck to his tunnel vision game plan, but the withdraw from the AT&T is a red flag.  I’m hoping he can relax and just play golf but it’s asking too much.

I see much of the same positive mental approach in Mr. Overdue, Jason Day.  The Aussie peaks his game for the majors, a bit like Angel Cabrera, but with more talent and less  results.  One of these days Day is going to break through and I like him here at 33/1.

Rory McIlroy can’t handle the pressure of a home game for some reason and lately, he can’t handle any pressure.  He was in poor form at the Irish Open and missed the cut, and his club destroying tantrum in the U.S. Open was an embarrassment.  Let’s face it, the lad doesn’t handle adversity very well.  Got to keep your cool out there and I’m very cool on him this week.

My favorite play here is a Sunday three-ball bet on Ernie Els, especially if he’s in a group with other big name players.  You will get a good price as people continue to underestimate him because of his age.  He’s in good form after winning the BMW International Open and is simply made for the pressure on the final day of this tournament.  He won it last year, and did as well in 2002 at the same venue, and is a superb pick at 25/1 to win straight up.

Dark horse play:  Padraig Harrington.  40/1 is a good price for Paddy and a top-10 finish is in the offering.  He hasn’t done much as of late, but finished 5th in the 2002 British Open at Muirfield and is a good horses for courses play.

Your 2013 British Open picks:

Champion Golfer of The Year:  Ernie Els in a repeat

Runner Up:  Jason Day starting to look like Mickelson with the runner up finishes.

Third:  Adam Scott gets back on track but not all the way.

2012 British Open Wrap-Up

Outstanding finish to The Open Championship, complete with the the resurrection of Ernie Els after the Big Easy came so close earlier in the year at Transitions and the Zurich Classic, and dealt with his own crushing disappointment along with a missed opportunity to play in The Masters.  As sweet as this was for Els, you’ve got to feel for Adam Scott and the way he went down.  Major golf is such a mental grind and it definitely benefits those who try and fail and fail and fail, as the battle hardening and lessons learned can be used to toughen the resolve of the defeated.  Scott was tested and failed.  Hopefully he can bank the experience and benefit from it.  Oddly enough, Els wasn’t subject to the pressure of defending the lead, played solid and let the championship fall into his lap.  He seemed almost as surprised to win as Scott was shocked to lose.

I had Tiger Woods winning this event and Ernie finishing third so their top performances were expected but I totally missed on Lee Westwood (my runner up pick).  On Woods, I was surprised he tried that play in the bunker on #6 (the first one) because his approach had been totally mastery-based to that point, and suddenly turned ego-based as the challenge of showing off his skills to pull off the shot became irresistible.  I much preferred Graeme McDowell’s approach of spending a shot on a sensible play in the bunker and giving himself a better look on an easier out.  The triple bogey effectively ended Tiger’s chances.  No idea what happened to Westwood other than he probably tried too hard to win one ala Colin Montgomery.

The Open is a very cool event to watch because the uniqueness of links golf brings the players who embrace the style to the forefront every year.  Often it’s age defying and was again at Lytham & St. Annes as seniors Tom Watson and Mark Calcavecchia both made the cut.  Greg Norman seriously contended at 53 years old in 2008, and the way the round bellies continually show up for this event is amazing.  It’s simply not possible in the three other majors (or is highly improbable), and is a pleasure to watch.

So congratulations to Ernie Els, and we’ll see you at Augusta in April!

2012 British Open Picks

This year’s British Open Championshipwill go to the player who can mentally withstand the rigors and punishment of a tough links style golf course and embrace the experience for what it is.  History with the event is almost as important as good form, which is why guys like Tom Watson continue to contend late into their 50s and 60s.  Not saying Watson is a first pager but I would not be surprised if an old timer challenges through a couple of rounds.  The last time The Open was contested at Lytham and St. Annes

Royal Lytham and St Annes

was in 1996 and Jack Nicklaus, at age 56, was tied for 3^rd after two rounds which sent a chill up everyone’s spine.  Nothing changes much in Open golf from year to year and most of the usual contenders should be right there on Sunday.

The principals:

With his recent successes, Tiger Woods is the overwhelming favorite in most betting houses and warrants significant action.  Tiger last played at this venue as an amateur and finished tied for 22^nd.  His performance in the 2012 majors has been lackluster and his missed cut at Greenbriar perplexing.  Yes, with his tour leading three wins, we can say Tiger is back, but I’m not convinced.  The Tiger of yesteryear didn’t miss cuts in ANY events and Greenbriar will be the second in his last six tournaments.  The greatness potential and mental toughness are there, the consistency is not.  The best case for Tiger is that the rest of the world’s best are playing lousy right now.

Got a sneaky good feeling about Ernie Els this week.  He was in good form at the U.S. Open and finished in the top ten.  He finished second at this venue in 1996 so he probably likes the course, and the style of play suits his game and personality.

I’m off the Rory McIlroy bandwagon.  Show me some consistency before I’ll ride again.

Lee Westwood, clearly has inherited the title of Best Player To Have Never Won A Major.  Off his game at Alstom last week with a tie for 40th but will contend this week.  As usual, needs help on the greens.

Defending champion Darren Clarke had his 15 minutes of fame and will not contend.

On the rise:  Dustin Johnson is making a speedy recovery from his back problems, has been in good form as of late, and finished tied for second last year.  I like his chances.

How does bright orange contrasted against a bleak grey sky coming down the stretch with the lead on Sunday sound?  Yes, Rickie Fowler has a good record at The Open and was hot earlier in the year.  That final round 84 at The Memorial still bugs me, but I’m warming to his chances.

Mojo pick:  Justin Rose.  He’s finished 21st at the U.S. Open but last five European events have been top 10s.  Wish he’d play a little more but I think he could be ready.  Sensing a big week.

Final 2012 Open Picks:

It doesn’t take much courage to pick Tiger to win the Claret Jug but he gets it done on mental toughness and is back on the major chase.

Runner up:  Lee Westwood; title retained. . . AGAIN.

Third:  Ernie Els; Big Easy gets close but no cigar.

Can you have fun playing bad golf?

Think back to the worst round of golf you’ve played.  I don’t have to go far because today was mine.  This four-handicap shot a 27-over 98 at Blue Mash but still had fun.  Can you have fun playing bad golf?  Maybe the old adage that a bad day on the golf course is still better than a good day at work is true because I took the day off to hack.

The round started out ominous as I warmed up on the range hitting weak cuts with every club in the bag.  My search for a WOOD band-aid to get me around the course came up empty and I arrived at the first tee with zero confidence.  It showed early as I started off double bogey, triple bogey, double bogey.  I’ve read advice from several sources about warming up poorly and the conventional thinking is to write off a bad range session because it’s not an indicator of how you’ll play.  Wrong!  I’m different because my warm up, is always an indicator of how I’ll play.  Oddly enough, I had warmed up well on the putting green and was brimming with confidence in my reads and stroke but the poor ball striking infiltrated my putting and I ended the day with 40 putts.  Egad – how could this be fun?

The weather started off cloudy and warm with a few rain squalls, but on about the fourth hole a cold front blew through and the temperature began dropping and the wind increased.    When we turned, we were dealing with a gale force wind that bent flagsticks, oscillated balls on the greens, and played havoc with our club selection.  We were live at the British Open!  My thoughts had shifted from my horrible ball striking to how to execute shots I had never practiced but now needed to use.  This was fun!  With my mind off my swing and on the demands of the game, my ball striking improved.  On the par-3 17th, I hit a full three wood from 190 yards and missed the green left.  My short greenside pitch was blown 90 degrees sideways after the first bounce.  Never witnessed that on the golf course.  Short putts (inside six to eight feet) were being pushed six inches off line.  Finally we finished on #18, a par-5 playing straight into the wind at 540 yards.  I estimated effective yardage at about 640 yards and crushed a driver and two three-irons to within 40 yards of the green.  A full sand wedge purely struck and three putts later, I had my final double bogey and a 98.  I left the course humbled and exhausted, yet somewhat exhilarated at the experience.  Have you ever had as much fun playing bad golf as I did today?

Tiger Returns

Well put a nine-iron through the window, look who’s coming back to play golf.  If you ascribe to the Horses for Courses theory, this is the right move for the seven-time Firestone winner.  Despite his historical dominance, Tiger finished 78th out of 80 in last year’s Bridgestone and hit the ball just terribly.  Can we expect an improved performance next week?  Let’s compare his situation from a year ago.  Last year he had played every 2-3 weeks leading up to Bridgestone with appearances at Memorial, U.S. Open, AT&T, and British Open.  Now, Tiger is newly divorced (albeit 12 months further removed from the scandal), has fired his long-time caddy, has rehabbed a recent injury to leg and Achilles, has a new mechanical-minded genius (Sean Foley) counseling him on his game, and hasn’t played in 11 weeks since withdrawing at The Players Championship.   The fact is Tiger is now a middle of the road pro with a ton of mental and physical baggage.  The champion we once new is gone forever.

Celtic Tiger?

Whoa, not so fast, Karen McKevitt.  She’s a politician in Northern Ireland, and coined the phrase to describe Rory McIlroy fresh off his U.S. Open triumph.  While McIlroy’s performance was stellar and dominating, a run of majors similar to to Tiger’s isn’t in the cards.  The competition is too tough and young guns like Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, and Luke Donald are too hungry.  Resurgent old timers like Lee Westwood and Sergio Garcia are showing good form and are also primed for runs now that Tiger is off the scene.  So congrats on a great tournament but don’t get a big head and get ready to feel the heat at Royal St. Georges!