Juicy Sub-Plots from The Open!

Lots of great tidbits floating around Royal Portrush this week adding to the specter of the championship and interest in general.

photo from skysports.com

 

Justin Rose complaining?

Let’s start with Justin and his criticism of the tour’s condensed major scheduling.  Rose never complains about anything and this is the first I’ve heard any top-tier player criticize the format.  While I love the back-to-back-to-back rapid fire cadence, I’m with him on this because he’s exposed the tour’s three dirty little secrets.  1)  There are too many events in the Fall with the FedEx Cup playoffs being the primary culprit.  2)  Autumn in North America is for football.  3)  They have their eye on the 2020 Olympics falling into the PGA Championship’s traditional slot in August, as was the case in 2016.  So, they squeezed everything up front.  The football argument is reasonable and there’s nothing they can do.  The other two are related.  Rose was spot on when he said the majors are the measuring stick for professional success and career legacy.  The FedEx Cup is just a money-ratings grab and always has been.  Olympic golf doesn’t matter.  Rory McIlroy said as much when he declined to participate at Rio.  Is anyone going to remember Rose won the gold medal and the FedEx Cup?  Probably not.  If you eliminate FedEx and leave the Olympics to the amateurs and move the PGA back to its traditional August spot, everything is solved. . .and Justin and Rory can go have a pint.

A new lunch entree?

Speaking of Rory, I don’t recall ever watching a perfectly reasonable round of even-par golf at a major squeezed between a quadruple and triple bogey on #1 and #18.  Should we call that a “Rory Sandwich”?

Grande Latte?

What is up with Phil Mickelson?  He looks great after starving himself for six days and consuming nothing but coffee.  Admittedly, he did lose 15 pounds, and at 49 must be trying to defy gravity or get a Starbucks logo on his bag.  At least he warned us that this “might” not do anything positive for his golf game.  After shooting +5 in round one he was right.

Caddy-gate?

And finally, some in the press made a big deal out of Brooks Koepka not acknowledging Tiger’s request for a practice round and possible brain picking session with Koepka’s caddy, Portrush native Ricky Elliott.  Sorry Tiger, there are no shortcuts.  And where have you been while trying to peak your game for the majors?  It certainly hasn’t been out on tour.  Will Tiger miss another cut?  Was The Masters a fluke?

Stay tuned!

2018 Masters Picks

photo from golfweek.com

As of this writing, Tiger Woods is leading the odds at 9:1 to win The Masters.  Can the four-time champion and greatest player of our generation take the green jacket?  You bet he can. All the big names are competing, everyone is healthy, most are in good form, it should be awesome.  Let’s look at Tiger and the rest of the principals to pick a winner.

Tiger.  I have loved watching his resurgence and two recent top-5 finishes.  His presence at Augusta and good form make for the juiciest pre-tournament hype.  He is great for golf and for The Masters. The gleam is back in his eye.  You saw it at Honda, Valspar, and Bay Hill.  You know the one where he squints, slightly fatigued from his powers of universal concentration.  It comes out when he gets in the hunt and he’s so close, but his driving is a bit too suspect and he’s been getting by with those stingers that keep the ball in play.  They worked at the earlier venues and are great for the US Open and PLAYERS but you gotta have the big stick at Augusta.  Prediction:  Top 10.

Phil Mickelson.  Awesome February run of top-10 finishes culminating with a win at WGC Mexico.  Is this really happening at 47 years old?  He’s playing this week in Houston but disregard any results because he’s just staying sharp.  Phil always plays Houston before The Masters as a ritual.  I’ll play the odds here and say Phil is on the wrong side of 46 to win another major, but he contends.  Prediction:  Top 10.

Last year’s champion, Sergio Garcia.  As soon as I see a guy going to the claw grip, I think “putting problems – no chance at The Masters.”  Sergio put that to rest in 2017 and brings all the other claw guys like Phil and Justin Rose into play.  I’ve never liked Garcia in this tournament because of his issues on the greens and my gut is telling me there’s a market correction coming.  Prediction:  No repeat but a top-20 finish.

Dustin Johnson.  We were denied a look at the world’s #1 last year because of a butt-busting slide down the stairs in his rental home.  He’s here, he’s healthy, but he’s in mediocre form.  I was surprised how poorly he played in the Dell Match Play and don’t know why.  I’m assuming he can right the ship and get motivated, although you can never read his desire level.  Prediction:  3^rd place.

Rory McIlroy.  Awesome display of power and finesse at Bay Hill.  Has he really found it or is it another Rory streak.  When he’s on, his birdie binges are incredible to watch.  This week, he cools off a bit and plays on the fringes of contention.  Prediction:  Top 20.

Jordan Spieth.  Been in particularly bad form lately but has caught fire through two rounds at Houston.  Spieth can grab a minor tweak and leverage that better and faster than anyone.  Greatest mind in the game among the young players.  When his putter is on, always a threat to win.  Prediction:  Top 10.

Justin Thomas.  Cocky, powerful, streaky, pouty at times.  The Masters requires an even keel more than any other tournament.  When Phil learned to play with steadiness, he started winning green jackets.  Thomas still needs some seasoning.  Prediction:  Makes the cut but not much else.

Paul Casey.  What’s he doing in this list?  He’s got a couple recent top-10s in The Masters, plays a nice right-to-left ball flight, is plenty long, has his putting woes straightened out, and has his mind settled.  Love the combo and this horse for this course.  Prediction:  2^nd place.

Justin Rose.  Last year’s runner up.  He’s hungry, is in top form, contends every week, is ready and will not be denied.  He is your 2018 Masters champion.

Who do you like?

photo from skysports.com

2016 US Open Picks

Finally, the 2016 US Open returns to a classic course that will produce a classic test.  Oakmont Country Club will feature tight fairways, deep rough, and the fastest greens on earth, and I love it.  If you are a traditionalist, and you believe even-par is a great score in this tournament, and that this should be the hardest tournament on earth to win, you’re in for a treat.  You can’t have been happy with last year’s carnival played at Chambers Bay, or even the 2014 contest at the redesigned Pinehurst #2.

Let’s look at the principals:

Justin Rose won the last US Open contested on a traditional layout (Marion – 2013) and sort of backed into it when Phil Mickelson found another way to finish 2nd.  Rose has got to be considered a contender.  He’s having a great ball striking year but his putter is shaky and these greens are going to be the most difficult the pros play all year.  Regarding Phil, I believe the window is just about closed because of age.  Phil plays more interrupt driven golf than ever before.  Interrupt driven = pars and birdies interrupted by “others”.

Rory McIlroy leads the BABSBP category (Bad Ass Ball Striking Balky Putter) with Justin Rose closely following.  Although Rory is arguably the best ball striker on earth when he’s on, the recent change of putting grip from left hand low to reverse overlap is disconcerting when done so close to a major.  He pulled this before The Masters going from reverse overlap to left hand low and was ineffective.  He struggled on the slickmeisters at The Players too, and when his putting is off, he clearly gets frustrated.  The US Open requires steadiness with the flat stick and more patience than any other tournament, and for that reason, Rory’s out.

Defending champion Jordan Spieth is clearly the best putter in the world.  He just recently won at Colonial too.  Current world #1, Jason Day is arguably the best all around player and is deserving of his top ranking.  With apologies to Masters champion Danny Willett, the tournament will come down to these two.  Going head-to-head ten times, Day would win six.  It’s that close.  Will the heat be a factor?  Day has struggled with health issues on and off and during some high visibility moments.  Can Spieth keep the ball in the fairway?  The occasional chicken wing move could be costly on the clutch tee shots on Sunday.  Spieth won at Chambers Bay because he can putt and because there was no rough.  Spieth became more and more jittery over his shots at The Masters and I’m not sure he’s overcome that nervousness.  Day is cool, Day is calm, Day is collected.  Jason Day is your 2016 US Open Champion.  Did I miss someone?  Who do you think wins it?

U.S. Open Picks

The 2014 U.S. Open is setting up to play out as one of the most intriguing majors in recent memory.  Will the back-to-back line up with the Women’s Open have an impact?  You bet it will, as will the course redesign by Coors and Crenshaw in 2010.  Picking a winner this early requires some deep analysis.  Let’s go out on a limb and make a prognostication without seeing results from The Memorial, because I’m gearing up for my own U.S. Open (Myrtle Beach trip) and can’t take the time next weekend.  So here’s your early winning pick – call your bookie now to get the best odds 🙂

The look from the par-3 #17th tee when we played it in 2011

When I traveled in 2011 and played Pinehurst #2, along with gathering data for the course review, I was trying to evaluate how this storied venue would stack up for the Open after the redesign.  What immediately struck me was how wide open it was off the tee.  I had mentally prepared to be hitting a lot of 3WDs but ended up with driver on every par 4 and 5.  We were playing if from the same yardage as the women will play the following week, but noticed that our tee shots were landing with ample room in the fairways and there was literally no rough.   The natural waste areas were mostly sand but were not played as a hazard (unless you were in a bunker within the waste areas).  I thought the way they had these laid out was awkward and it would be difficult to determine how to play if your ball was on the edge of a bunker.  Expect an abundance of USGA officials traveling with each group to speed along ruling inquiries, but the main takeaway is that unlike most U.S. Open venues, the rough will not be the penal impediment it usually is.

Pinehurst’s crowned greens will be the course’s main defense, BUT they won’t be able to shave them down and dry them out almost to the point of burning them because of the Women’s Open immediately following.  So with small reasonably well watered greens, expect some diabolical pin placements and a premium on chipping, missing the greens on the correct side, and solid bunker play; but not a fairways and greens affair.

This sets up perfectly for Matt Kuchar who will win the tournament.

From golfweek.com

Kuchar is not the greatest driver of the ball but has a wonderful short game, is getting in contention with every major, is from the southeast, and just feels like the right pick.  I’m giving him a pass on the missed cut at Colonial.

Justin Rose is the defending champion and his golf swing looks great.  He’s over his shoulder injury and actually seems rather bulked up (have you noticed too?) and I’m wondering if he’s been collaborating with Tiger The Gym Rat Woods, considering they both work with Sean Foley.  Normally, I’d take Rose to repeat in a ball striking competition, but his short game is not strong enough.  His form is good for a top 10, though.

From dailystar.uk.com

Jordan Spieth
From bostonherald.com

Coming in a close second again is the hottest golf property on the planet, Jordan Spieth.  He is getting so close, is so mentally mature and tough, that it’s just a matter of time; just not this time.

So that brings us to Phil Mickelson, who would be the perfect pick for the way this course sets up.  Phil is without a top 10 this year and despite finishing second at Pinehurst to Payne Stewart back in 1999, Lefty will remain a sentimental pick.

So what about Rory McIlroy and Woz-gate?  Good timing or bad?  I say bad and a missed cut.

Rory and Woz during better days. From businessinsider.com

So there you have it with Koooch finally getting his first major.  You like this pick or someone else?

2013 PGA Picks

Tiger Woods just turned the 2013 PGA Championship picking apple cart upside down with the butt kicking he administered at Bridgestone, but let’s settle things down and take an organized approach to pick your winner for this year’s event at Oak Hill.

Like most majors, position off the tee and putting will be critical and the course setup at Oak Hill doesn’t appear terribly long at 7,163 yards, but is brutally difficult and should be playing fast and firm.  With no soaking rain in the forecast for the week it will stay tough and a few strokes under par should win it.

We’ve seen this drill with Tiger before as he’s won the same WGC event at Firestone eight times and actually followed up one time with a victory in the 2007 PGA at Southern Hills.  The key for Woods in the majors is getting out to a fast start because he doesn’t play well and never wins from behind.  When Tiger is on, he can dominate like nobody else, but his dominating weeks have been ill-timed in 2013 and he’s placing too much pressure on himself to win a major for the sake of his legacy.  In effect, he can’t get out of his own way in the big ones.  Does anyone think Tiger looks like he’s having fun competing in a major for the last five years?  Despite his recent prowess, I don’t like him to win here.

Adam Scott was totally at peace with himself and took The Masters.  Justin Rose won the war of attrition at The U.S. Open, and Phil Mickelson charged from behind to capture the claret jug at Muirfield.  The only story missing from the majors is the wire-to-wire winner and it will happen here for Brandt Snedeker who is super hot since finishing 17th at The U.S. Open and has fully recovered from his mid-season rib injury.  I liked his steady if not unspectacular win at RBC two weeks ago and do not think he has peaked too soon.

Phil Mickelson has figured out that you can leave driver in the bag for the majors and still contend.  It’s eliminated many costly mistakes off the tee, but it’s too soon for Lefty, who is still in a fog after winning The British Open, or from looking at his tax bill from his winnings.  Other contenders:  Lee Westwood is an interesting play and I was pleasantly surprised at his performance in the British Open.  He seemed to have righted the ship with a new mental approach on the greens and was rolling it quite well, but his ball striking deserted him at the critical juncture.  Don’t you hate it when that happens?  Lee needs this tournament almost as bad as Tiger.  Outwardly, he doesn’t seem to put nearly as much pressure on himself, but inwardly, it must be a crushing grind.  I think he comes close AGAIN. 

You won’t find my dark horse on anyone’s odds board, but I’m loving Angel Cabrera‘s moxie when it comes to big tournament play.  The guy is lose and seems to play great with house money.  Watch him and enjoy!

Who do you like in this one?

2013 British Open Picks

Back up the armored truck, get out your Muirfield money bags; here come your winning 2013 British Open picks!

It’s a good thing the official odds don’t reflect a player’s actual chance of winning and just the public’s appetite for spending, because the public is looking like a drunken sailor bidding up Tiger Woods as the favorite at 8/1.  He’s coming off an injury and his putting stroke has deserted him again.  Those waiting for the next big win to get back on the Jack Nicklaus record chase can keep waiting.

Did Phil “The Thrill” give us a great ride at the U.S. Open or what?  The difficult aspect of a Mickelson pick is the consistency component.  It’s simply not there, but what you get with Phil is good theater.  I’ve never liked him in the British Open, and except for his final round charge at Royal St. George’s in 2011, he’s been a major underachiever.  This week the roller coaster is heading downhill so keep your billfold in your pocket and Lefty off your board at 25/1.

U.S. Open champion, Justin Rose is suffering from burnout.  Even though I loved the way he finally conquered the unreasonably high expectations he’s dealt with since his miracle British Open finish in 1998, he’s a poor play at 18/1.  At Merion, he didn’t get too excited as he made clutch shot after clutch shot and stuck to his tunnel vision game plan, but the withdraw from the AT&T is a red flag.  I’m hoping he can relax and just play golf but it’s asking too much.

I see much of the same positive mental approach in Mr. Overdue, Jason Day.  The Aussie peaks his game for the majors, a bit like Angel Cabrera, but with more talent and less  results.  One of these days Day is going to break through and I like him here at 33/1.

Rory McIlroy can’t handle the pressure of a home game for some reason and lately, he can’t handle any pressure.  He was in poor form at the Irish Open and missed the cut, and his club destroying tantrum in the U.S. Open was an embarrassment.  Let’s face it, the lad doesn’t handle adversity very well.  Got to keep your cool out there and I’m very cool on him this week.

My favorite play here is a Sunday three-ball bet on Ernie Els, especially if he’s in a group with other big name players.  You will get a good price as people continue to underestimate him because of his age.  He’s in good form after winning the BMW International Open and is simply made for the pressure on the final day of this tournament.  He won it last year, and did as well in 2002 at the same venue, and is a superb pick at 25/1 to win straight up.

Dark horse play:  Padraig Harrington.  40/1 is a good price for Paddy and a top-10 finish is in the offering.  He hasn’t done much as of late, but finished 5th in the 2002 British Open at Muirfield and is a good horses for courses play.

Your 2013 British Open picks:

Champion Golfer of The Year:  Ernie Els in a repeat

Runner Up:  Jason Day starting to look like Mickelson with the runner up finishes.

Third:  Adam Scott gets back on track but not all the way.

My Almost Perfect Father’s Day

With my kids on Father’s Day at Bethany Beach, DE

I drifted off to sleep Saturday night thinking about Father’s Day and wondering what would constitute the perfect day?  How about a great beach day with my family, a perfect round of golf, and a thrilling storybook ending to the U.S. Open?

I was going to spend the afternoon at the beach with my wife and kids and the weather was going to be perfect – part one, check.  I also had a tee time at the Salt Pond in Bethany Beach at 7:00 a.m.

#3 Tee at the Salt Pond

The Salt Pond is a lovely little par-61 executive course where I annually go to sharpen my iron game when visiting the beach.  If your swing is on, you can score because the greens are always soft and in excellent condition.  I’ve gone as low as 3-under here, but was thinking about “the perfect round”.  How about bogey free?  Ever played a bogey free round?  On a couple of occasions, I’ve gotten close, and when the round got late into the back-nine, the pressure buildup was significant, and I always cracked.  So I figured, why not on the perfect day?

Third, I looked forward to watching Phil Mickelson enjoying his birthday, Father’s Day, first U.S. Open title, yada, yada yada.  Well, we know how that ended, but Justin Rose seemed like a very worthy champion, and truly a class act with his gracious post-round comments about Phil.  No complaints.

There’s just a driving net with a couple of stations at the Salt Pond, but I’m becoming very adept at playing golf sans hitting warm-up balls since I’ve been working on this new warm-up routine, and elected to tee off after stretching and taking a couple of passes with a swing doughnut.  I wonder if any tour pros have played bogey free golf in an official round without warming up?  But I digress.  I opened with a lovely 7-iron right over the flag and just missed the birdie putt.  A couple of solid pitching wedges on #2 and #3 yielded a birdie and a par, but the dream ended on #4 with a pulled 5-iron and a missed 10-footer for par.  At least I wasn’t hallucinating for too long.  The day ended with a few more birdies, a few bogeys, and two doubles.  I finished three-over and sort of reminiscent of the round Lefty would play later in the day.  But I was out playing the game I love and really had no expectations other than to have fun.

I loved Father’s Day this year; it was truly perfect for me.  How was yours?

9 Tee at The Salt Pond