2016 US Open Picks

Finally, the 2016 US Open returns to a classic course that will produce a classic test.  Oakmont Country Club will feature tight fairways, deep rough, and the fastest greens on earth, and I love it.  If you are a traditionalist, and you believe even-par is a great score in this tournament, and that this should be the hardest tournament on earth to win, you’re in for a treat.  You can’t have been happy with last year’s carnival played at Chambers Bay, or even the 2014 contest at the redesigned Pinehurst #2.

Let’s look at the principals:

Justin Rose won the last US Open contested on a traditional layout (Marion – 2013) and sort of backed into it when Phil Mickelson found another way to finish 2nd.  Rose has got to be considered a contender.  He’s having a great ball striking year but his putter is shaky and these greens are going to be the most difficult the pros play all year.  Regarding Phil, I believe the window is just about closed because of age.  Phil plays more interrupt driven golf than ever before.  Interrupt driven = pars and birdies interrupted by “others”.

Rory McIlroy leads the BABSBP category (Bad Ass Ball Striking Balky Putter) with Justin Rose closely following.  Although Rory is arguably the best ball striker on earth when he’s on, the recent change of putting grip from left hand low to reverse overlap is disconcerting when done so close to a major.  He pulled this before The Masters going from reverse overlap to left hand low and was ineffective.  He struggled on the slickmeisters at The Players too, and when his putting is off, he clearly gets frustrated.  The US Open requires steadiness with the flat stick and more patience than any other tournament, and for that reason, Rory’s out.

Defending champion Jordan Spieth is clearly the best putter in the world.  He just recently won at Colonial too.  Current world #1, Jason Day is arguably the best all around player and is deserving of his top ranking.  With apologies to Masters champion Danny Willett, the tournament will come down to these two.  Going head-to-head ten times, Day would win six.  It’s that close.  Will the heat be a factor?  Day has struggled with health issues on and off and during some high visibility moments.  Can Spieth keep the ball in the fairway?  The occasional chicken wing move could be costly on the clutch tee shots on Sunday.  Spieth won at Chambers Bay because he can putt and because there was no rough.  Spieth became more and more jittery over his shots at The Masters and I’m not sure he’s overcome that nervousness.  Day is cool, Day is calm, Day is collected.  Jason Day is your 2016 US Open Champion.  Did I miss someone?  Who do you think wins it?

PGA Major Meltdown!

Quick question:  What’s the measure of greatness in professional golf?  Short answer:  The number of major victories one has accumulated.  We don’t consider money rankings, driving distance, Vardon Trophy (scoring average), or even FedEx Cup championships.  The sole measure of historical excellence is how many Masters, U.S. Open, British Open, and PGA Championship victories one has.  This is not dissimilar to the NFL where Super Bowl titles are the standard, or Major League Baseball where World Series victories are king.  Tennis, the other major individual sport, measures its greats by number of Grand Slam titles won.

So why is the PGA Tour compromising the integrity of the major championships with it’s insane scheduling in 2016?  Take a look at the backside of the 2016 PGA Tour schedule and you’ll notice for the first time The Open Championship and PGA Championship are being contested only 11 days apart!  This is simply not enough time for the world’s best to recover physically and mentally, make the journey back across the Atlantic, and for excitement to rebuild in the fan base for the final major.  In a normal year, each event is generally spaced one month apart, with the exception being the two months between golf’s Masters and U.S. Open.

At first glance I attributed this to the presence of the 2016 Olympic golf event which is scheduled for August 11-14 and happens to fall right smack on the PGA Championship’s traditional window (one month from The Open).  But Olympic Golf is not the growth panacea everyone thought it was and The PGA Tour knows it.  At best it’s an inconsequential event with an unfair qualification process (only four players per country are allowed to participate eliminating many of the world’s best).  At worst, it’s a classic example of exceeding the economic law of diminishing returns with too much golf on TV.  I think after a couple tries, it probably will join baseball on the list of dropped Olympic sports.  Think otherwise?  Think Olympic golf will command the TV stage?  Think again.  The suits at PGA headquarters have scheduled the John Deere Classic to be contested simultaneously with the Olympic tournament.  And the USGA put the U.S. Senior Open in the same time slot as well.  When baseball was last played in the Olympics in 2008, Major League Baseball played right through the window and didn’t even give the Olympic tournament a sniff of concern.  I’m hoping golf plays out in a similar fashion.

Olympic golf feels like an attempt to force growth in an incorrect way.  The recent golf market contraction is due to the receding Tiger Woods wave.  As Tiger plays less, fewer folks tune in.  It’s a natural phenomenon that can’t be fought.  But cheapening the integrity around the existing major championships is absolutely the wrong approach and needs to be fixed.  The tour has the ability to shift schedules around and should flip-flop The PGA Championship with The Wyndham Championship, and move the former into the August 18-21 window.

On a global scale, the good news is that golf has a chance of re-entering a golden age with a core of young superstars take the sport by storm.  To allow natural rivalries to form between Jordan, Rory, Jason, and Rikie, the PGA needs to ensure the integrity of its competitions is on the highest level.  It should start with an adjustment to the 2016 schedule.

What do you think they should do?

U.S. Open Report Card

from Golfdigest.com

The 2015 U.S. Open was all over the map as far as major tournaments go, so let’s make some sense of everything and grade out the main components.

Sunday Theater (Grade:  A minus).  I watched hours of action each day, but always look forward to the Sunday finishes of major tournaments, and this did not disappoint.  Unlike the snoozer at the last two Masters, the back nine on Sunday was awesome.  From Spieth and Johnson’s struggles with pressure, to the mini charges by McIlroy and Oosthuizen, and the courageous effort of Jason Day to stand upright and compete, the story lines were riveting.  Gets an A plus except for the balloon-popping 3-putt finish by Johnson.  Even Spieth seemed deflated, albeit momentarily.  What a horrible way to lose.

Holly Sonders
photo – awfulannouncing.com

Fox Broadcast Team (Grade: C).  Way too many four man talking head panels.  Reminiscent of their NFL pregame show and halftime updates.  Where was Terry and Jimmy?  Would have also preferred fewer human interest stories and more live golf.  Were they practicing for the Olympics?  Joe Buck was okay as the top guy and Greg Norman had some good insights, although the attempt to describe the details of Day’s medical condition didn’t go well.  The post game debrief sessions with Holly Sonders were short, to the point, and well done.

Chambers Bay Golf Course (Grade:  D plus).  Failed the standard of providing a full mental and physical test for the hardest tournament in the world.  Too quirky and too many bad bounces for good shots, but at the end of the day, even-par turned out to be a good score.  The greens, the greens, the greens. . .ad nauseam.  Thank goodness we’re going back to Oakmont next year.

U.S.G.A. (Grade:  C minus).  These guys took a risk with Chambers Bay and flopped.  That’s two years in a row of questionable layouts for our nation’s championship.  This was by far more controversial than the Pinehurst #2 redesign, but to their credit, they saved the Sunday round with accessible pin placements and didn’t make a mockery of the event.  Yes, it was an easier layout.  Look no further than Adam Scott’s final round 64 and Oosthuizen’s 29 on the inward half as proof.  The stuffed shirts WERE feeling the heat from the media and players, no matter what you hear/believe from Mike Davis, USGA Executive Director.

Player’s professionalism (Grade:  B minus).  A lot of whining about the greens, mostly from players who couldn’t putt them, like Sergio and Billy Horschel.  Joe Buck tried to set up Jordan Spieth,  at the trophy ceremony, to take a shot at the course but J.S. wouldn’t bite.  Great job praising the Seattle area fans and leaving the course out of it.  Spieth is truly an awesome champion and exemplifies everything that is right about the game today.

Billy Horschel
from Golfdigest.com

What’s your grade for the U.S. Open?

Why Some Players Don’t Win Majors

photo by dailymail.co.uk

The Masters is almost here and the non-major winners will be under the microscope again.  Why don’t they win?  Why do some players like John Daly win multiple majors when stellar career guys like Steve Stricker don’t?  How do guys like Charl Schwartzel and Louis Oosthuizen (one tour win each) manage to make their only tour victory a major?  Of the guys that win, some overcome physical shortcomings, some overcome mental issues, but rarely will someone conquer both.  To be successful, they must have three characteristics:

 

 

–Total commitment

-Belief in self

-Ability to avoid distractions for 72 holes

Of the players that win majors, you’ll always find two of the three on any given week, but the guys who lose have a major deficit in at least one. Of the winners, John Daly is the most fascinating and is the least likely multiple major winner in the history of the game.  With the charges of domestic violence, substance abuse, busting up hotel rooms, etc, Daly suffered from the most distractions, but his belief in self and ability to concentrate for the full 72 holes allowed him to prevail in the 1991 PGA and 1995 Open Championship.   Vijay Singh overcame poor putting for his entire career, but his commitment to excellence and belief in self were tremendous, and he won three majors.  Nick Faldo had just nine tour wins but six were majors.  Nick was supreme in all three facets.   Tiger Woods also excelled in each but when the distractions started, so did the current train wreck.

John Daly with the Claret Jug.
photo by golfweek.com

Of the primary non-winners with double digit career victories (age/PGA Tour wins) let’s look at why they failed:

• Steve Stricker (48/12): Lack of total commitment.  Total family man; nothing wrong with that, but 15 tournaments per year was a full schedule.  Sometimes didn’t travel to The Open when eligible to play.
• Bruce Lietzke (63/13): Lack of total commitment.  Would rather be fishing.  Very similar to Stricker.
• Kenny Perry (54/14):  Belief in self.  Came close at The Masters but didn’t believe he could win it at the end and choked.  Very humble, almost to a fault.  No killer attitude and has never believed he was a great player.

On the current list of Best Player to Never Win a Major, who’s got what it takes?  Let’s look at three:  Matt Kuchar (36/7); (Dustin Johnson (30/9); Sergio Garcia (35/8).

Matt Kuchar:  Best finish was T-3 at the 2012 Masters.  Has the belief in his abilities and is a relentless competitor.  Seems to stay in the moment and has an excellent short game.  Tough to judge his level of commitment.  I’m not wild about his recent swing changes with his closed stance and over the top move.  Historically, not a good ball striker in terms of driving length, accuracy, and GIR which is probably what’s held him back.  Best chance to break through would be at The Masters.  I have him at 50-50 odds to get a major.

Dustin Johnson:  Best finish was T-2 at the 2011 Open Championship but best chance to win was at the 2010 PGA (T-5) where he was assessed a two-stroke penalty on the last hole and missed out on a playoff by two strokes.  Could have the most physical talent on tour.  Obviously distractions were a huge issue in the past.  I love the changes in his pre-shot routine, especially with the putter, and they’ve been on display in recent weeks.  Still has a weak short game that will hurt in tournaments with fast greens like Augusta and the U.S. Open.  Best chance to win is at The Open where his ability to bomb it and the slower greens work in his favor.  Too soon to tell if he’s past the mental foibles but looks good in the short term.  70% chance to win a major because he’s young and oozing talent.

Sergio Garcia:  Best finish was T-2 at the 1999 and 2008 PGA as well as T-2 at the 2007 and 2014 Open Championship.  Clearly the most disappointing of the three.   What’s held Sergio back has been issues with commitment, a bad attitude, and poor putting, especially towards the end of tournaments.  He’s been so close, but the combination of mental and physical shortcomings has derailed him.  With all the second place finishes and late round failures, his major career is slightly reminiscent of Greg Norman’s, except The Shark won his first major at the age of 31 . At 35,  Sergio has improved his putting over the last couple of seasons but still struggles with pressure late in rounds.  His proclivity to choke will get harder to overcome with age and despite all the close calls, I have him at less than 25% to win a major.  Best chance would be at The Open, with the slower greens and home field advantage.

Ricky Fowler and Jordan Spieth are in the next group but are too young to be dinged for not winning.  Both have the talent to prevail, but as we have seen recently, will need to overcome a huge obstacle (Mr. Rory McIlroy) to break through.

Do you think anyone has what it takes to break through in 2015?  Predictions?

 

 

Can Tiger break Jack’s record? No way.

Many opinions have been rendered by players, writers, and prognosticators across the spectrum, including Nicklaus himself, so I’ll weigh in with an emphatic “No”, Tiger cannot break the record.   Consider the insurmountable evidence:

• Only 18 players in the history of golf have won at least five majors, and only one of them is still active, Woods.  It took the rest their entire careers to amass the five victories and Tiger is starting at age 35.
• Balance of power is too great.  For the first time since 1991, no player in the top 25 money list has more than two wins.
• Strength of global competition.  In 1991, 22 of the top 25 money winners were American.  In 2011, just 17 are.  Go a little deeper and there’s only one American in spots 26-30.  The world’s top players are younger, hungrier, and in the game.
• Tiger is reworking his swing after winning 14 majors.  Are you kidding?  His head drops 3-4 inches on his downswing making consistent ball striking difficult (a must for major contention.)  Now his stance has mysteriously narrowed on full shots.
• Constant battle with his putter.  Not a good sign when he’s continually changing putters, adding lead tape, etc.  Look at Mickelson’s performance in the big events since he’s been struggling with his putting – not good.
• Age and propensity to suffer lower body injuries.
• Ultimately, Tiger is fighting his biggest battle on the course between his ears.  You must be of single mind and purpose to win majors.  It’s not going to happen with all the distractions.

Add it all up and Jack’s record is safe.  Count on it.