U.S. Open Picks

The 2014 U.S. Open is setting up to play out as one of the most intriguing majors in recent memory.  Will the back-to-back line up with the Women’s Open have an impact?  You bet it will, as will the course redesign by Coors and Crenshaw in 2010.  Picking a winner this early requires some deep analysis.  Let’s go out on a limb and make a prognostication without seeing results from The Memorial, because I’m gearing up for my own U.S. Open (Myrtle Beach trip) and can’t take the time next weekend.  So here’s your early winning pick – call your bookie now to get the best odds 🙂

The look from the par-3 #17th tee when we played it in 2011

When I traveled in 2011 and played Pinehurst #2, along with gathering data for the course review, I was trying to evaluate how this storied venue would stack up for the Open after the redesign.  What immediately struck me was how wide open it was off the tee.  I had mentally prepared to be hitting a lot of 3WDs but ended up with driver on every par 4 and 5.  We were playing if from the same yardage as the women will play the following week, but noticed that our tee shots were landing with ample room in the fairways and there was literally no rough.   The natural waste areas were mostly sand but were not played as a hazard (unless you were in a bunker within the waste areas).  I thought the way they had these laid out was awkward and it would be difficult to determine how to play if your ball was on the edge of a bunker.  Expect an abundance of USGA officials traveling with each group to speed along ruling inquiries, but the main takeaway is that unlike most U.S. Open venues, the rough will not be the penal impediment it usually is.

Pinehurst’s crowned greens will be the course’s main defense, BUT they won’t be able to shave them down and dry them out almost to the point of burning them because of the Women’s Open immediately following.  So with small reasonably well watered greens, expect some diabolical pin placements and a premium on chipping, missing the greens on the correct side, and solid bunker play; but not a fairways and greens affair.

This sets up perfectly for Matt Kuchar who will win the tournament.

From golfweek.com

Kuchar is not the greatest driver of the ball but has a wonderful short game, is getting in contention with every major, is from the southeast, and just feels like the right pick.  I’m giving him a pass on the missed cut at Colonial.

Justin Rose is the defending champion and his golf swing looks great.  He’s over his shoulder injury and actually seems rather bulked up (have you noticed too?) and I’m wondering if he’s been collaborating with Tiger The Gym Rat Woods, considering they both work with Sean Foley.  Normally, I’d take Rose to repeat in a ball striking competition, but his short game is not strong enough.  His form is good for a top 10, though.

From dailystar.uk.com

Jordan Spieth
From bostonherald.com

Coming in a close second again is the hottest golf property on the planet, Jordan Spieth.  He is getting so close, is so mentally mature and tough, that it’s just a matter of time; just not this time.

So that brings us to Phil Mickelson, who would be the perfect pick for the way this course sets up.  Phil is without a top 10 this year and despite finishing second at Pinehurst to Payne Stewart back in 1999, Lefty will remain a sentimental pick.

So what about Rory McIlroy and Woz-gate?  Good timing or bad?  I say bad and a missed cut.

Rory and Woz during better days. From businessinsider.com

So there you have it with Koooch finally getting his first major.  You like this pick or someone else?

2014 Masters Picks

The Masters green prognostication jacket is out of the closet.  Ready for a changing of the guard?  It’s here and this year’s champion will be a first time major winner.

First, the usual suspects.  Tiger’s body is breaking down and he’s withdrawn.  Phil’s body appears to be giving him more difficulty than in the past and while he’s overcome some significant arthritic issues, age is becoming a factor.  I love watching Phil compete, but he is 43 and will turn 44 in June, and from a major winning standpoint, players hit the wall at 44 (see data from golfmajorchampionships.com below).  Phil still has game and usually turns it on at Augusta no matter what type of form he’s showing in the preceding weeks.  That being said, of all the majors contested since Willie Park won the first Open Championship in 1860, only eight have been won by a player older than 43, making Jack Nicklaus‘ victory in the 1986 Masters, at age 46 all that more impressive.   Look for a top-10 finish for Phil.

Augusta National is the premier horses-for-courses venue and picking the winner is the easiest of all the majors because course familiarity is a huge advantage and some of the entrants are aging past champions who have no chance  The contest also boasts the smallest field of all the majors with 97 entrants in 2014.  The other majors routinely field more than 150.

I love the newer younger cast of characters because they all have great ability and are dynamite when they get hot, but each has a distinct weakness that prevents dominating performances from week-to-week.  Come Sunday evening, the tournament will pit four players head-to-head:  Rory McIlroy, Matt Kuchar, Adam Scott, and Jason Day.  Let’s take them in reverse order.

Jason Day will win The Masters this year.

Jason Day
From golfdigest.com

He’s been so close with a 3rd in 2013 and a T-2nd in 2011 and it is now his time.  Jason hit’s it a long way, knows the course very well, and has finally got his mind right.  I loved the way he kept his cool and closed at the WGC Accenture when Victor Dubuisson kept getting up-and-down out of trash cans, dumpsters, and desert cactus against him in the final.  Day’s weakness is his ability to control his distances under pressure.  He’s adjusted with a repeatable pre-shot routine and doesn’t deviate based on the situation.  Alan Shipnuck’s piece at Golf.com on Day is must reading for students of the mental game.  Day’s visualization techniques are more in-depth than any I’m aware of.  His fascination with Navy Seals training and affinity for hitting the gym are sounding Tiger-esque and I would caution him about taking too extreme an approach.  But for this week, as long as his sore thumb holds up, he wins his first major.

Adam Scott and Matt Kuchar will tie for second.  Scott is the horse for this course, has Steve Williams on the bag for steadiness and sense of purpose, and has the full compliment of tools.  He’s susceptible to getting on bogey runs which are protracted and seem to come at terrible times under pressure.  Yes, he pulled through last year in an epic moment for self and country, but his fellow Aussie will edge him out.  In the back of Scott’s mind has to be the upcoming ban on anchoring and how he will adjust.  Is it starting to affect his current work with the flat stick?

Kuchar plays well at Augusta, knows the course intimately, and has the temperament.  He won THE PLAYERS Championship, which is just as hard as a major, and is also ready.  Kuchar’s achilles heel is his driving distance.  He’s also mediocre in GIR and the fact that he’s so highly rated year after year in scoring average is a testament to his lights out short game and putting.  This new closed stance and slightly over the top move is supposedly getting the job done, but doesn’t bode well for the right to left ball flight needed at Augusta and will be just enough to hold him back.  Down the line shots at Shell indicate he’s made a slight correction from last week at Valero but still looks too closed to me.  Hopefully it helps him.

Rory McIlroy finishes alone in 4th.  The Northern Irishman is starting to look like Phil Mickelson from a roller coaster perspective.  When hot, there’s nobody better, but when his driving is off, it affects his mindset and his total game suffers.  Physically, he’s got the tools to be the best player in the world and is a multiple major winner.  He’s still young and it still may happen.  Now I need to see a serious run with no final round collapse.

Value picks for your Calcutta.  Look for Zach Johnson to make a run.  The 2007 champion had a great 2013 season, is hitting fairways and greens in 2014, but has slipped to 68th in total putting.

Nobody wins in his first attempt at Augusta, but I look at these three making their Masters debut to have an impact.  Jordan Spieth has the guts and the game to win a major-now.  Billy Horschel got real hot this time last year and has the confidence to contend.  Harris English has all the physical tools but needs more time under the gun.  Missing from the conversation is Jimmy Walker who’s leading the Tour in FedEx points and has three wins under his belt.  He kills it of the tee, putts great, but is only 86th in scrambling, which is a must have around Augusta.  While he’s shown steady improvement over the last five years, I don’t look for him to make a move in his Masters debut until he gets some experience chipping to these greens.

Masters Sunday is one of my favorite days of the year.  Play golf in the morning and settle into exciting final round coverage in the afternoon; I can’t wait.  Good luck in your pools!

 

2012 TPC Wrap-Up

Strange sort of PLAYERS Championship this year characterized by a lack of star power at the top, with the exception of Rickie Fowler, and no dynamic pulse pounding finish.  Again, #16, 17, and 18 played pivotal parts, but I felt like I was watching a fleet of large ships all leaking oil and trying to get to port.

Matt Kuchar

Congrats go to Matt Kuchar, for leaving the smallest oil slick, and for taking the crystal while maintaining the best attitude and biggest smile on tour.  By historical standards, Kuchar won this in traditional style by finishing 3rd in GIR which is always the key stat.  My picks of Luke Donald (6th) and David Toms (T-10th) played out well but they were never really in contention.  I was very disappointed in Hunter Mayhan’s performance as his ball striking failed him and he missed the cut.

Final impressions on the other principals:

• Tiger Woods:  T-40th at The Masters, T-40th at THE PLAYERS.  Probably the 40th best player in the world.
• Rickie Fowler:  This guy is the real deal.  Goes all out and made key birdies on 16 and 17 and had a great look at another on 18.  LOVE to watch him in the hunt.
• Lee Westwood:  Another good ball striking week but same old story with the putter.
• Has anyone noticed that Charlie Wi cannot play on the weekend?  Poor Charlie is 14th on tour with his pre-cut scoring average (70.04) and 165th in final round scoring (73.11).
• Kevin Na:  3rd round leader and total basket case on the tee with more false starts, waggles, practice swings and self admonishments BEFORE THE BALL IS STRUCK than I can remember.  Don’t think it would be pleasant playing with Kevin until he gets these worked out and was worried that Kuchar would get distracted.  Not the case, though.
• Rory McIlroy:  Didn’t drive it straight, didn’t hit greens, didn’t make the cut.  Didn’t have high hopes for him this week but he underachieved even my lowly expectations, and again on one of the biggest stages.