Olympic Golf – Are You Watching?

Olympic golf has joined the specter of sports that have been added to the games and simultaneously de-emphasized as “must see”.  I am not watching.  There are two common themes at play with sports like Olympic golf:

1. The world’s best athletes are not competing
2. The “sport” is really an activity or hobby

Now, before you start ragging on me because surfing, skateboarding, or canoeing is not a sport, consider that you can compete at anything, but just because there is competition doesn’t mean it qualifies as Olympic.  The Olympics should be reserved for sports where the world’s best compete every four years.  What I’m watching is swimming, gymnastics, track and field in the summer, downhill skiing, figure skating, luge, and bobsled in the winter.  There are a few others.

Of our two themes, Olympic golf falls into the first.  The size of the field and the depth of talent are considerably less than a standard PGA Tour event, and slightly more than a silly season exhibition.  Must-see?  The events that matter for golf are the four majors, Ryder Cup, and regular tour events.  Other sports that fall into this category: tennis, soccer, basketball, softball, baseball (in the past), and hockey in the winter games.  Of these only Olympic hockey gets my patriotic juices flowing enough to watch.  Olympics vs. Wimbledon?  Olympics vs World Cup?  Olympics vs. Final Four?  No thanks.

Are you watching Olympic golf?

Golf is NOT Dead!

Is the game dead?  No, and it’s not even on life support.  Some recent events and conversations have left folks with the perception that the game of golf is suffering a slow agonizing death.  Drew Harwell wrote a piece in today’s Washington Post today titled, “Whispers in the gallery get louder; Golf is dying.”  He sights some troubling figures from participation rates in the United States, like the reduction in US golfers playing at least one round per year.  This is down from 30 million in 2003 to 24 million last year.  This week Nike announced that they are shutting down their golf equipment business, and the top names in the men’s game are skipping Olympic golf at Rio.

Tracy, a beach blogger from Myrtle Beach by Word of Mouth sent along a great question about why so many golf courses in The Grand Strand area were closing and being replaced by housing developments.  And finally, yesterday at lunch, a friend was wondering why nobody was showing up to play the “perfectly fine” golf course in his parents gated retirement community.

Taken at face value these events point to a decline in the game, but these are merely leading indicators in a market correction.  As is often the case with real estate, stocks, oil, pork bellies, or beanie babies, when we are in the midst of a market shift, it’s difficult to observe from the inside.  Hard-core golf enthusiasts (I count myself as one) get emotional and defensive about the game.  We love the sport and want to share our joy and experiences while playing and watching, and when negative observations are made, get upset.  But take a step back and think about the reason this is happening.  There is one single explanation that is driving most if not all of the above phenomena.  Tiger Woods.

Tiger took the golfing world by storm from his Masters win in 1997 until the autumn of 2009.  This twelve-year run constituted a bubble in the market which was identified by an increased demand for equipment, clothing, an over-saturation of professional events (FedEx Cup started in 2005, IOC reinstated golf as an Olympic sport in 2009), and most importantly, increased participation by individuals that would not normally play golf.  Courses and resorts were built to accommodate the additional demand for rounds.  Clothing and equipment manufactures sprung to life to supply and outfit newly minted players and prize money and endorsement deals skyrocketed for professionals.  Greens fees and club membership costs soared.  The Tiger effect had bestowed great wealth on many in the corporate world and the elite playing class.  Amateurs were enamored with his chase of Jack Nicklaus’ major record, and his power, physique, and playing style were captivating.  Everyone bought into his brand.  The game was hot and so were the ancillary markets for equipment, real estate, and golf course design.

The bubble burst in November of 2009 when his wife buried a 9-iron in the back window of his SUV after his well publicized cheating scandal.

Middle age guys (like me) have always been the backbone of the game.  We are the majority of players and continued to play at the same rates, unabated by the scandal; but enough of the genuflecting newbies soured on Tiger’s behavior, and when he exited the national stage, pulled out of the game, which started the downward trend in rounds played.  Declining participation is commonly mis-perceived as the struggle to get poor kids or women to take up the game, or to grow the game globally.  While there are obvious barriers to entry such as cost and time, they have always been there and probably will be, but the trend is actually a return to the normal rates of participation.

Sponsors dropped Tiger (except for Nike) and the demand for equipment and clothing ebbed.  Greens fees at public and upscale daily fee courses started to discount, as tee time supply exceeded the demand for rounds.  Some courses could not survive and closed, which was what Tracy was seeing in Myrtle Beach.  While interest rates remained low it was still cheap enough to borrow money and the real estate market began to fill the void in the golf market which is why housing developments have sprung up on old golf course land.

So rest easy and go stock up on newly discounted Nike golf equipment.  Just because Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, and Dustin Johnson aren’t playing the over-hyped event at Rio doesn’t mean there’s anything wrong with the game.  We’re market correcting and that’s okay.

Play well!

 

2016 PGA Picks

Baltistrol, from Golfdigest.com

The 2016 PGA Championship has been thrown on its head by the Rio Olympics.  For the first time in recent memory, the start of the fourth major of the season gets under way only 11 days after the third concluded.  The Olympics are turning into a joke and the golf tournament is in the PGA’s traditional August slot.  Who will be able to deal with the change in routine and the shortened rest and recovery window?  The majority of the worlds top players are either skipping the Olympics or have not qualified, and if they manage to recharge quickly enough, could use the disruption to their advantage.  Imagine them charging into the PGA full bore, skipping the Olympics, and using the extra time off to rest up for the Ryder Cup and FedEx playoffs, which also required significant energy.

The state of Olympic golf from tfs.org.uk

Make no mistake, the PGA is the most important event left on the calendar and the American and European stars know it and will be highly focused.  Let’s look at the particulars to get you a winner.

Phil Mickelson, fresh off one of his greatest performances in a major, always plays the week before a major but skipped the RBC Canadian Open because of the timing.  Lefty has some local knowledge at Baltustrol, but he played so well at Troon and has got to be deflated from the energy spent on another 2nd place finish.  I suspect he’ll have a go on Thursday and Friday but will run out of gas.  Henrik Stenson can’t possibly duplicate his effort after his performance in The Open.

This major will play out in an epic slug-fest between the world’s top four.  Jason, Jordan, Rory, and DJ are all skipping Rio and have their priorities in order.  They have been bobbing and weaving in the 2016 majors with Dustin Johnson holding an edge in performance and consistency.  Sergio Garcia has been performing well and is always buzzing around the top 5, and the last two majors have been won by players previously on the BPTNWAM list.  Sergio is the trendy pick but he is going to Rio and will be too distracted.  Who will win it?  I am feeling a Rory, DJ and Scott Piercy Sunday horse race  This will be a power ball striking tournament and DJ is striping it better than anyone now.  He is your 2016 PGA champion.  Yes, two majors in one year for a guy I thought would never win one.  Like that pick?  Who’s your pick at Baltustrol?

Supporting Adam Scott

Yesterday it was reported that Adam Scott is skipping the Olympic Games this summer.  Good for him.  Fellow Australian and gold medalist swimmer Dawn Frazer basically had a meltdown and accused Scott of being unpatriotic.  Anyone who witnessed Scott’s magnificent 2013 Masters triumph and celebration of country knows better.  This has nothing to do with patriotism and everything to do with taking a principled stand against the obvious misplacement of a sport that does not belong in the Olympic Games.  Scott is a professional.  Professional golfers biggest stage is the majors.  The Olympics should be for amateurs.  I get that it’s not but there’s nothing wrong with taking a stand in what you believe in.  Thankfully, South Africans Louis Oosthuizen and Charl Schwartzel quickly followed suit and I suspect the floodgates of professionals sensing a guilt free option to skip has been opened.

The addition of professional sports to the Olympics has cheapened an event that was once the crown jewel of amateur competition.  The Soviet basketball team first violated the spirit of amateurism at the 1972 Olympic Games which started the downhill spiral.  Now the world’s biggest professional events have been added and it’s a joke.  How bad is this?  Let’s compare a few:  World Cup vs. Olympic soccer?  No contest.  Baseball World Series vs Olympic baseball?  Already decided.  NBA Championship vs USA Dream team destroying every country by 50 points?  What a laugher.  Wimbledon vs Olympic tennis?  You get the picture.

Folks who think Olympic Golf is about growing the game globally are being mislead.  Golf is a game played largely in developed countries and will probably remain that way because of market forces.  Sure a driving range or course may pop up in Senegal or Ecuador, but those are outliers.

Sometimes you simply need to take action because it’s the right thing to do.  I stand in solidarity with Scott, Oostie, Schwartzel, and anyone else who cares to skip Olympic golf.  Good for them.

PGA Major Meltdown!

Quick question:  What’s the measure of greatness in professional golf?  Short answer:  The number of major victories one has accumulated.  We don’t consider money rankings, driving distance, Vardon Trophy (scoring average), or even FedEx Cup championships.  The sole measure of historical excellence is how many Masters, U.S. Open, British Open, and PGA Championship victories one has.  This is not dissimilar to the NFL where Super Bowl titles are the standard, or Major League Baseball where World Series victories are king.  Tennis, the other major individual sport, measures its greats by number of Grand Slam titles won.

So why is the PGA Tour compromising the integrity of the major championships with it’s insane scheduling in 2016?  Take a look at the backside of the 2016 PGA Tour schedule and you’ll notice for the first time The Open Championship and PGA Championship are being contested only 11 days apart!  This is simply not enough time for the world’s best to recover physically and mentally, make the journey back across the Atlantic, and for excitement to rebuild in the fan base for the final major.  In a normal year, each event is generally spaced one month apart, with the exception being the two months between golf’s Masters and U.S. Open.

At first glance I attributed this to the presence of the 2016 Olympic golf event which is scheduled for August 11-14 and happens to fall right smack on the PGA Championship’s traditional window (one month from The Open).  But Olympic Golf is not the growth panacea everyone thought it was and The PGA Tour knows it.  At best it’s an inconsequential event with an unfair qualification process (only four players per country are allowed to participate eliminating many of the world’s best).  At worst, it’s a classic example of exceeding the economic law of diminishing returns with too much golf on TV.  I think after a couple tries, it probably will join baseball on the list of dropped Olympic sports.  Think otherwise?  Think Olympic golf will command the TV stage?  Think again.  The suits at PGA headquarters have scheduled the John Deere Classic to be contested simultaneously with the Olympic tournament.  And the USGA put the U.S. Senior Open in the same time slot as well.  When baseball was last played in the Olympics in 2008, Major League Baseball played right through the window and didn’t even give the Olympic tournament a sniff of concern.  I’m hoping golf plays out in a similar fashion.

Olympic golf feels like an attempt to force growth in an incorrect way.  The recent golf market contraction is due to the receding Tiger Woods wave.  As Tiger plays less, fewer folks tune in.  It’s a natural phenomenon that can’t be fought.  But cheapening the integrity around the existing major championships is absolutely the wrong approach and needs to be fixed.  The tour has the ability to shift schedules around and should flip-flop The PGA Championship with The Wyndham Championship, and move the former into the August 18-21 window.

On a global scale, the good news is that golf has a chance of re-entering a golden age with a core of young superstars take the sport by storm.  To allow natural rivalries to form between Jordan, Rory, Jason, and Rikie, the PGA needs to ensure the integrity of its competitions is on the highest level.  It should start with an adjustment to the 2016 schedule.

What do you think they should do?

Do You Confuse Effort With Results?

After watching the Jeremy Abbott saga at the Winter Olympics, I’m reminded again how athletes at every level often let their mental state affect performance.

Jeremy Abbott from ABC News

Watching Abbott in the moments before his short program skate, you sensed his incredible nerves, saw the tension in his face, and I remarked to my wife that I thought he was going to blow it.  Didn’t take long for him to fall apart right from the start, but what happened after the big fall?  Abbott got up, dusted himself off and finished an otherwise flawless performance.   This was clearly a choke and we’ve all done it.  You let your brain get in the way of your capacity to produce.  Abbot finished strong because he knew there would be no medal and the pressure was off.  He relaxed.

What could he have done differently?  I suspect he let the four-year build up of pre-Olympic preparation and aspirations create a level of expectations that were too high.  He confused effort with results.  If I were Abbott, and I can’t skate a lick, I would have told myself, “There are many excellent skaters in this competition.  On any given day, anyone could win the gold.  I’ll focus on giving my best effort and if I win, great; if not, I’ll heartily congratulate the champion.”

Athletes who relax, enjoy the moment, laugh at the nerves, and embrace these opportunities as nothing more than life’s great experiences, have a better chance for success.

T.J. Oshie

See T.J. Oshie before and during the shootout in today’s USA 3-2 victory over Russia?  He was smiling, enjoying the moment, embracing the challenge.  I had confidence in him and he managed to perform at his capacity.

How can these lessons help us on the golf course?  I’ve read all the books by Dr. Bob Rotella and there are many nuggets you can get from him or other sources on the web.  Invest time in developing a good pre-shot routine, simulate game conditions during your practice, visualize the shot before you play, and don’t take a lot of time over the ball.  They’re all good advice, but the best way I’ve found to not confuse effort with results is to remember two simple things.  Try your hardest on every shot and remember to have fun.

Golf is a game and we are humans.  Sometimes we play great and other times we blow it and that’s okay.  What are your keys to perform your best?

Olympic Golf – Really?

What is the point of adding golf to the Olympic Games?  I know this decision was made in 2009 for the 2016 games, but does anyone really think this will add any interest outside of what is already been generated on a global scale?  I’m sure the feel good set views this as bringing the game to those who can’t afford it or live in repressed areas where the opportunities don’t exist.  So as soon as Olympic golf takes the world by storm, we’ll start seeing youngsters in Jamaica and Republic of Chad participating by the thousands in newly constructed learning centers and tearing up their local mini tours and competing against the world’s best for spots on the PGA Tour.

This is really about letting the stars on the PGA and European Tours march around the opening ceremony waving their country’s flag and adding the title of Olympic Athlete to their resume.  The addition of professionals has permanently altered the landscape of the Olympics and not for the better.  I took great pride in the U.S. basketball and hockey teams trying to beat the “career” Olympians that the Russians continually fielded, but with the introduction of the U.S. Dream Team in 1992, the lure of the amateur competition eroded.  The world’s best professional golfers already compete every year on multiple occasions so adding Olympic golf will do nothing but over saturate the existing market.

Obviously this is a done deal, so somebody please tell me how the Olympic golf tournament will work.  How many entrants do you allocate to each country; four, six, unlimited?  Do you have qualifying with pros and amateurs like the U.S. Open and British Open?  If you insist upon participation from all countries you knowingly take spots away from the best players in the world, or do you let the top 80-100 professionals in the world ranking compete?  Would this be the 5^th major?  The 2016 Olympics are set for August 5-21, right when the PGA is normally scheduled – do you move the PGA?  And what if Tiger Woods can’t qualify, God forbid.  Do you deny him the mantle of Olympic Athlete?