The Masters is almost here and the non-major winners will be under the microscope again. Why don’t they win? Why do some players like John Daly win multiple majors when stellar career guys like Steve Stricker don’t? How do guys like Charl Schwartzel and Louis Oosthuizen (one tour win each) manage to make their only tour victory a major? Of the guys that win, some overcome physical shortcomings, some overcome mental issues, but rarely will someone conquer both. To be successful, they must have three characteristics:
-Belief in self
-Ability to avoid distractions for 72 holes
Of the players that win majors, you’ll always find two of the three on any given week, but the guys who lose have a major deficit in at least one. Of the winners, John Daly is the most fascinating and is the least likely multiple major winner in the history of the game. With the charges of domestic violence, substance abuse, busting up hotel rooms, etc, Daly suffered from the most distractions, but his belief in self and ability to concentrate for the full 72 holes allowed him to prevail in the 1991 PGA and 1995 Open Championship. Vijay Singh overcame poor putting for his entire career, but his commitment to excellence and belief in self were tremendous, and he won three majors. Nick Faldo had just nine tour wins but six were majors. Nick was supreme in all three facets. Tiger Woods also excelled in each but when the distractions started, so did the current train wreck.
Of the primary non-winners with double digit career victories (age/PGA Tour wins) let’s look at why they failed:
- Steve Stricker (48/12): Lack of total commitment. Total family man; nothing wrong with that, but 15 tournaments per year was a full schedule. Sometimes didn’t travel to The Open when eligible to play.
- Bruce Lietzke (63/13): Lack of total commitment. Would rather be fishing. Very similar to Stricker.
- Kenny Perry (54/14): Belief in self. Came close at The Masters but didn’t believe he could win it at the end and choked. Very humble, almost to a fault. No killer attitude and has never believed he was a great player.
Matt Kuchar: Best finish was T-3 at the 2012 Masters. Has the belief in his abilities and is a relentless competitor. Seems to stay in the moment and has an excellent short game. Tough to judge his level of commitment. I’m not wild about his recent swing changes with his closed stance and over the top move. Historically, not a good ball striker in terms of driving length, accuracy, and GIR which is probably what’s held him back. Best chance to break through would be at The Masters. I have him at 50-50 odds to get a major.
Dustin Johnson: Best finish was T-2 at the 2011 Open Championship but best chance to win was at the 2010 PGA (T-5) where he was assessed a two-stroke penalty on the last hole and missed out on a playoff by two strokes. Could have the most physical talent on tour. Obviously distractions were a huge issue in the past. I love the changes in his pre-shot routine, especially with the putter, and they’ve been on display in recent weeks. Still has a weak short game that will hurt in tournaments with fast greens like Augusta and the U.S. Open. Best chance to win is at The Open where his ability to bomb it and the slower greens work in his favor. Too soon to tell if he’s past the mental foibles but looks good in the short term. 70% chance to win a major because he’s young and oozing talent.
Sergio Garcia: Best finish was T-2 at the 1999 and 2008 PGA as well as T-2 at the 2007 and 2014 Open Championship. Clearly the most disappointing of the three. What’s held Sergio back has been issues with commitment, a bad attitude, and poor putting, especially towards the end of tournaments. He’s been so close, but the combination of mental and physical shortcomings has derailed him. With all the second place finishes and late round failures, his major career is slightly reminiscent of Greg Norman’s, except The Shark won his first major at the age of 31 . At 35, Sergio has improved his putting over the last couple of seasons but still struggles with pressure late in rounds. His proclivity to choke will get harder to overcome with age and despite all the close calls, I have him at less than 25% to win a major. Best chance would be at The Open, with the slower greens and home field advantage.
Ricky Fowler and Jordan Spieth are in the next group but are too young to be dinged for not winning. Both have the talent to prevail, but as we have seen recently, will need to overcome a huge obstacle (Mr. Rory McIlroy) to break through.
Do you think anyone has what it takes to break through in 2015? Predictions?