Inside the Brilliant Mind of Brooks Koepka

Photo from Golf Digest

What makes him tick?  As we approach the final major of the season, my intrigue continues to grow with his amazing success.  He is extraordinary in the big events but rather ordinary in the regular tour stops.  How does he turn on the mental supercharger for the majors?  Few athletes in history have been able to turn it on in big events to the same extent.  Great golfers like Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods demonstrated fantastic ability to concentrate, but their performance was more evenly distributed across all their events.

Sports fans old enough to remember the Hall of Fame running back John Riggins, recall Riggo hated to practice and almost never did.  He was often in the hospital injured during the week, or out carousing and making trouble, but come game day, he could turn on an amazing level of focus and concentration and performed brilliantly.  Football is a sport where you are very dependent on the performance of others.  Golf is not.  Koepka has no offensive line to run behind which makes his majors performances even more remarkable.

In perhaps his greatest book on sports psychology (How Champions Think), Bob Rotella sites “single-mindedness” as the most important key.  The greats demonstrate it time and again and sometimes at the cost of other important aspects in their lives.  Tiger certainly had single-mindedness and learned it from his dad.  Maybe his personal failings later in life were a cry for help due to the strains of single-mindedness at an early age.  Michele Wie’s parents tried to enforce single-mindedness before she was ready and may have ruined a great golf career.

Koepka doesn’t appear to be single-minded at all.  He doesn’t sweat the majors any more than you or I would going to an important meeting at the office.  He does abide by a corny half-baked idea that it’s easier to win the majors because he has fewer opponents that will be in contention for a variety of reasons.  Does that really work; can you trick yourself into performing better by simply believing you are superior?  For example, could your son or daughter excel in an important event like taking the SAT and expect superlative performance by thinking half the other students in the class will choke under the pressure?  There may be some truth to it.

More importantly, is there something we (the average amateur) can adopt from his approach that will help our games?  Think back to a time when you put on a great performance for a big event.  A couple months back, I presented at a professional conference and was rather nervous at the thought of getting up in front of my peers for an hour.  What if I stumbled or said something stupid?  But, I nailed the presentation.  How?  I practiced the heck out of it until I was so sick of it I could do it forwards and backwards.  On a few occasions, I’ve been able to mentally trick myself into performing better on the golf course by playing without any swing thoughts, but that doesn’t sustain for more than a few holes.  The only tried and true method I’ve found is consistent practice, but it’s important to get feedback from someone other than yourself during the practice.  I did that presentation alone and for family members and got constructive feedback that made it better.

So next time you’re on the practice tee or working short game, ask for feedback.  In the best case, get it from a professional instructor.  Learn the right way and practice.

And yes, Brooks Koepka is my pick for the 2019 British Open.  I’ll ride him until he bucks me off.

Play well.

Is 125 Strokes “Playing” Carnoustie?

From 1971 to 1983, my parents brought me on five or six trips to Europe in an attempt to expose me to other lands and different cultures.

With Mom and Dad at Stonehenge in 1975

In 1975, we visited Scotland, and were in the town of Carnoustie.  Tom Watson won the claret jug at Carnoustie Golf Links that year, and my Dad and I actually played the famous course while on our journey.  I was 14 years of age, and was at the stage where you measured yourself against your buddie’s 9-hole scores during beginner’s summer camp.  Breaking 60 was a badge of honor.  In short, my level of preparation for taking on Carnoustie was excellent.

What’s cool about playing Open Championship rota courses is that the general public can get a tee time on several of the venues.  I think it was probably easier back then because there were no on-line bookings.  Either show up or call.  Now, this was 43 years ago and I was young and have just a few memories of the round.  I do recall it was not planned; we just showed up and got off.  We played with rented clubs in old canvas bags.  The course had a lot of tall brown fescue and sand.  My Dad and I played as a twosome and were followed by four elderly ladies who admonished us at one point for playing too slow.  My Dad usually played in the high 90s and was actually having a good game considering the difficulty level and our unfamiliarity with the course.  He shot something like a 94.  Even though I had been to golf camp, I was still a beginner and couldn’t control my golf ball.  I played awful and shot a 125 and nearly took another player’s head off with a hosel rocket.  I remember being pressured to play faster by the ladies and my Dad apologizing.  I remember topping a lot of shots, but not feeling embarrassed.  The same was probably not the case for my Dad.

I don’t remember watching Watson’s victory on television that year, but do remember Paul Lawrie’s win (Jean van de Velde’s implosion) in 1999, and of course today’s recently concluded championship.  In none of the telecasts, do I recall any of the holes first hand.

So the question I’ll leave you with is:  Can you shoot 125 at Carnoustie and say you actually played the course?

Drinking my first pint with Mom’s old neighbors in Cheltenham, U.K. in 1975

 

2017 British Open Picks

Picking a winner for the 146th Open / Open Championship / British Open at Royal Birkdale is even more confounding than deciphering the official name of this tournament.  Let’s just call it the world’s oldest major.

Field analysis is made difficult because of the recent trend of the world’s top players taking time off and trying to peak their performance around the majors.  That’s a by-product of the protracted year round scheduling problem on the PGA Tour (more on that coming in a future post).  With the exception of Phil Mickelson, Rickie Fowler, and Jordan Spieth, the top contenders don’t play frequently enough.  Yes, everyone is different but you can’t just show up once per month under the heat of competition and expect to generate consistent results.  Dustin Johnson played Memorial in May and the US Open in June and missed both cuts.  He’s coming off a back injury and nobody thinks he should play as much as Vijay Singh, but can DJ seriously be in winning form?  No way.  To draw a mediocre parallel, I’m in software development.  If I practiced my trade under the most stringent of conditions once per month, I’d suck at my job.  These guys should go hard from January to August (playing every two out of four weeks) and then shut down.

So let’s get down to business:  Rory McIlroy needs a session on the putting green with Dave Stockton Sr.  It’s so bad right now, he’s not even close to contending.  Jason Day‘s ball striking is in the crapper (what happened?)  Defending champion Henrik Stenson has missed five of his last six cuts and is looking to catch lightning in a bottle – nope.  Phil missed the US Open, then broke protocol by not playing in the Scottish Open, and finally parted ways with Bones.  That may be all the change he can handle at 47 years old and I don’t think it happens for him this week.  Hideki Matsuyama threw a scare into the field at the US Open with a strong Sunday finish and is going to get one soon, but it will be on U.S. soil.

Who’s ready?  Rickie Fowler.

Photo from Golfweek

He keeps finishing top-10 in the majors and plays often enough to stay sharp.  I think his conservative strategy in the majors of sometimes taking iron off the tee will play well at Birkdale, because you must drive it straight and then battle the wind from the fairway.  Forget playing out of the rough here.  Look for a tough battle with Justin Rose, who’s a horse for this course, Spieth, who’s tough in every major, and John Rahm, but Rickie will prevail.

Who is your pick for the Claret Jug?

 

 

You Can Play Well Without Practice!

This fall, I’ve barely scraped out enough time for a once-per-week round of golf, and have not been practicing much between rounds but have been scoring pretty well.  Can you play effectively without practicing?  The answer is “yes” but it requires a mental adjustment, which we’ll go into shortly.

Before you remove practice, it’s best to understand what you need from it.  I score best when my play is preceded by full game practice.  That means range plus short game the day before a round.  Over the years, I’ve compiled notes for my practice sessions, whether it be ball striking, chipping, putting, or bunker play, and I’ll typically review those to identify what I practiced before successful and unsuccessful rounds of golf.  My data shows I practice short game 70% of the time.  For me, the quality of practice the day before is a good indicator of the score I can expect the next day.  If I struggle to concentrate during practice, or cannot make good contact, it’s inevitably followed by a poor round.  But if I’m focused like a laser, good things are going to happen.  Other folks hit buckets of pure shots in practice but can’t take it from the range to the course, or vise versa.  You need to know your trends and what to compensate for.

So what adjustments can every player make?  First, know that your short game is probably going to be affected the most by lack of practice.  A full swing is an athletic motion that gets repeated dozens of times during a round and with the reps comes consistency.  This is why our first round of the year is often a good ball striking round, but our chipping and putting are usually rusty.  Short shots are unique and require practice.  The subtle adjustments for distance, lie, and the speed of the putting surface demand it.  This brings us to our primary adjustment.  The key to playing without practice is to remove reliance on too much short game by taking a more conservative ball striking approach, i.e. keep the ball out of trouble.  It sounds simple, but it works!  Resist the temptation to go for the big hit, which may mean using a 3-wood instead of driver on some tee shots.  Also try to take more of the fairway on doglegs.  Course architects will tempt you to cut dogleg corners to save distance.  Don’t bite.  When playing in windy or rainy conditions, adjust your personal par to compensate for the increased difficulty and give yourself a mental break.  It’s much easier to play a long par-4 like a short par-5 from the fairway, than constantly pressing to recover from trouble off the tee.  This game is exponentially easier played from the short grass so make it easy on yourself.  Remember Tiger’s 81 in the harsh conditions of the 2002 Open Championship?  You’re not playing for a major; don’t be like Tiger. 

I played yesterday in very heavy wind which was extremely difficult and added five shots to the par-71 scorecard before I started.  I played great and my 81 was only five strokes over my personal par which felt very satisfying.

So there you have it.  Exercise some sound course management, keep the ball in play, and enjoy!

Have you had any success playing without practice or do you got to have your reps?  Please share and play well!

145th British Open Championship Picks

I always thought that if Dustin Johnson was going to win a major, The British Open would be his first because the slower bumpy greens equalize the putting ability of the world’s greatest players.  Johnson is a notoriously mediocre putter especially during big clutch moments, but has suddenly turned the golf world on its head and is winning everything.  Having cleared his first major hurdle, is he now unstoppable?

The other big three (Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, and Jordan Spieth) all seem capable, but currently vulnerable.  Spieth is suffering from mechanical issues.  McIlroy hasn’t sorted out his putting, and Day had the WGC Bridgestone in control until an uncharacteristic late round collapse.  The pre-tournament betting line has all four at 8-1.  It’s going to be a wild ride so let’s sift through the morass and get you a winner.

It’s exciting when someone from the BPTNWAM list finally breaks through as DJ did at Oakmont.  The final round at The US Open had layers of intrigue.  DJ, Sergio Garcia, and Lee Westwood were all well positioned.  But alas, only one player can win it.  I liked the way Sergio finished (for a change).  He hung tough and didn’t choke.  He’s looking good to me this week.  Westwood was awful on Sunday and I have to believe that he didn’t believe enough in himself to play well under the gun.  Rapidly joining that class is Rickie Fowler.  I knew Rickie was done at Oakmont before the tournament started because he basically threw up his hands in the practice rounds and said (I’m paraphrasing) “I cannot putt these greens; they’re ridiculous.”   Haven’t heard anything from Rickie this week, which is a good thing, but the guy is in a slump and he doesn’t close well.  I need to see improvement before I even consider him for BPTNWAM membership.

The Open Championship always manages to tease us with an aging champion getting into contention, and sometimes gives us a winner, like Ernie Els in 2012 when Adam Scott  collapsed late at Lytham.  How about Greg Norman or Tom Watson?  How about Colin Montgomerie in 2016???  Could you see a Monty, Westy, and Sergio BPTNWAM threesome battling it out on Sunday for the Claret Jug?  No.

Back to reality.  This year’s champion will have to steel himself mentally, and has to relish playing in the wind and rain (it’s forecast to be wet the whole week).  Normally, I’d love someone who would leverage the adverse conditions against the field, someone who knows that bad weather culls the weak from the heard.  Someone like a Phil Mickelson.  But Lefty has run up against Father Time.  Not happening for him this week.

I see the winner coming from a group of six players.  The big four, Sergio, and Danny Willett will battle it out all week.  Willett plays great in Europe, has the major bonafides and should be able to leverage the home court advantage.  But he can’t sneak up on anyone any more.

Of these six, Day and Spieth have the best minds for the game.  Day for concentration and patience, Spieth for guts and grit.  It’s a battle of attrition, I’ll take guts and grit.  Jordan Spieth is your winner of the 145th Open Championship.  Let’s get it on!

 

2015 British Open Picks

Boy what I would give for a ticket to this year’s British Open Championship at St. Andrews.  The story lines are compelling, especially Jordan Spieth’s attempt to win the third leg of the Grand Slam.  Early odds have him as an overwhelming favorite now that his main competition, Rory McIlroy is injured.  The board (sans McIlroy) looks eerily similar to the pre-tournament  betting at the U.S. Open.  Spieth is the heavy favorite, and way ahead of Dustin Johnson, who’s at 12:1.  Again, these are not the actual win probabilities, but how the public has elected to wager their money.  Let’s sift through the data and get a smart pick for those who failed to cash in on Spieth at Chambers Bay.

St Andrews
from telegraph.co.uk

The principals:

Think Jordan Spieth needs more seasoning to win The Open?  This guy handles pressure better than anyone on the planet.  He putts better than anyone on the planet, and has more guts than anyone on the planet.  I’m pulling very hard for him this week but don’t think he closes the deal.  Why?  The Open, more than any other major, is susceptible to the come out of nowhere winners like Darren Clarke, Tod Hamilton, and Ben Curtis.  Also, some ageless contender like Tom Watson or Greg Norman (in their 50s) seems to make a serious run.  It’s clear, the slower greens are the equalizer and don’t require as much nerve to putt, which negates Spieth’s advantage.  I also don’t like that he’s playing John Deere in-lieu of the Scottish Open.  He should have made the trip early to get acclimated.  Make no mistake, he deserves the short odds and is playing the best in the world right now.  I’m hopeful he gets it done but just don’t see it.

Rory McIlroy;  very unfortunate timing on the ankle injury and will not play.  Last time out at St. Andrews, Rory finished 3rd in The Open, eight shots behind in the route perpetuated by Louis Oosthuizen.    Oosthuizen has a beautiful swing but only seems to be in contention in every third or fourth tournament.  Not this week.

Excellent value play is Adam Scott.  Scott has gone back to the long putter, had a solid U.S. Open, shooting 64 in the final round, and seems to have shaken off his early season doldrums by resigning Stevie Williams on the bag.  Williams was with Tiger Woods for both his Open Championship victories at St. Andrews which is a significant intangible.  The stars are aligned, and at 20:1 odds the smart money is backing the Aussie.

What to do with Dustin Johnson.  If anyone can forget the debacle at Chambers Bay it’s D.J.  Nothing seems to phase him, but that three-putt was a bad choke; worse than the grounded club debacle at Whistling Straits in the PGA.  Can he overcome?  He’ll either contend or totally collapse.  I think he contends and puts up a good fight.  If D.J. is going to win a major, it will be The Open on the slower greens.  I’m not feeling the closing power this week, though.

Sneaky long shot is Retief Goosen.  You can get him at 250:1 to win and I don’t see a victory in his future but would not rule out a top 10.  Goose is the perfect horse for this course despite his inconsistent play of late.

Interesting side note:  I’m watching Phil and Tiger head-to-head this week.  They’re both in the 25-30:1 range but trending in opposite directions, Phil is at the age where majors rarely are won.  He still has game but doesn’t seem to put four consecutive rounds together any more.  Tiger had a decent showing at Greenbriar in some very soft conditions.  Links golf with it’s precision ball placement off the tee doesn’t suit Tiger’s rebuild project.  If the wind gets up, it could get ugly.  I’m thinking Lefty takes him down.

So here we go, call your bookmaker.

Claret Jug winner:  Adam Scott

Runner Up:  Jordan Spieth

Third:  Dustin Johnson

Who are your picks at St. Andrews?

Adam Scott
from bbc.co.uk

 

 

Why Some Players Don’t Win Majors

photo by dailymail.co.uk

The Masters is almost here and the non-major winners will be under the microscope again.  Why don’t they win?  Why do some players like John Daly win multiple majors when stellar career guys like Steve Stricker don’t?  How do guys like Charl Schwartzel and Louis Oosthuizen (one tour win each) manage to make their only tour victory a major?  Of the guys that win, some overcome physical shortcomings, some overcome mental issues, but rarely will someone conquer both.  To be successful, they must have three characteristics:

 

 

–Total commitment

-Belief in self

-Ability to avoid distractions for 72 holes

Of the players that win majors, you’ll always find two of the three on any given week, but the guys who lose have a major deficit in at least one. Of the winners, John Daly is the most fascinating and is the least likely multiple major winner in the history of the game.  With the charges of domestic violence, substance abuse, busting up hotel rooms, etc, Daly suffered from the most distractions, but his belief in self and ability to concentrate for the full 72 holes allowed him to prevail in the 1991 PGA and 1995 Open Championship.   Vijay Singh overcame poor putting for his entire career, but his commitment to excellence and belief in self were tremendous, and he won three majors.  Nick Faldo had just nine tour wins but six were majors.  Nick was supreme in all three facets.   Tiger Woods also excelled in each but when the distractions started, so did the current train wreck.

John Daly with the Claret Jug.
photo by golfweek.com

Of the primary non-winners with double digit career victories (age/PGA Tour wins) let’s look at why they failed:

• Steve Stricker (48/12): Lack of total commitment.  Total family man; nothing wrong with that, but 15 tournaments per year was a full schedule.  Sometimes didn’t travel to The Open when eligible to play.
• Bruce Lietzke (63/13): Lack of total commitment.  Would rather be fishing.  Very similar to Stricker.
• Kenny Perry (54/14):  Belief in self.  Came close at The Masters but didn’t believe he could win it at the end and choked.  Very humble, almost to a fault.  No killer attitude and has never believed he was a great player.

On the current list of Best Player to Never Win a Major, who’s got what it takes?  Let’s look at three:  Matt Kuchar (36/7); (Dustin Johnson (30/9); Sergio Garcia (35/8).

Matt Kuchar:  Best finish was T-3 at the 2012 Masters.  Has the belief in his abilities and is a relentless competitor.  Seems to stay in the moment and has an excellent short game.  Tough to judge his level of commitment.  I’m not wild about his recent swing changes with his closed stance and over the top move.  Historically, not a good ball striker in terms of driving length, accuracy, and GIR which is probably what’s held him back.  Best chance to break through would be at The Masters.  I have him at 50-50 odds to get a major.

Dustin Johnson:  Best finish was T-2 at the 2011 Open Championship but best chance to win was at the 2010 PGA (T-5) where he was assessed a two-stroke penalty on the last hole and missed out on a playoff by two strokes.  Could have the most physical talent on tour.  Obviously distractions were a huge issue in the past.  I love the changes in his pre-shot routine, especially with the putter, and they’ve been on display in recent weeks.  Still has a weak short game that will hurt in tournaments with fast greens like Augusta and the U.S. Open.  Best chance to win is at The Open where his ability to bomb it and the slower greens work in his favor.  Too soon to tell if he’s past the mental foibles but looks good in the short term.  70% chance to win a major because he’s young and oozing talent.

Sergio Garcia:  Best finish was T-2 at the 1999 and 2008 PGA as well as T-2 at the 2007 and 2014 Open Championship.  Clearly the most disappointing of the three.   What’s held Sergio back has been issues with commitment, a bad attitude, and poor putting, especially towards the end of tournaments.  He’s been so close, but the combination of mental and physical shortcomings has derailed him.  With all the second place finishes and late round failures, his major career is slightly reminiscent of Greg Norman’s, except The Shark won his first major at the age of 31 . At 35,  Sergio has improved his putting over the last couple of seasons but still struggles with pressure late in rounds.  His proclivity to choke will get harder to overcome with age and despite all the close calls, I have him at less than 25% to win a major.  Best chance would be at The Open, with the slower greens and home field advantage.

Ricky Fowler and Jordan Spieth are in the next group but are too young to be dinged for not winning.  Both have the talent to prevail, but as we have seen recently, will need to overcome a huge obstacle (Mr. Rory McIlroy) to break through.

Do you think anyone has what it takes to break through in 2015?  Predictions?

 

 

Solving the Poolesville Puzzle

Ever run up against a course that has your number?  What are your strategies for conquering?  I am playing mine tomorrow.  Poolesville  is a local muni in the western reaches of Montgomery County, and has my number for the last six years.  At par-71 and at a nondescript 6,405 yards, in my last 15 rounds I have never played well, with 76 being my best score (achieved twice) and I’m struggling to a stroke average of 80.31.  Ball striking always seems to be an issue as are slow starts.  It has been impossible to get on a roll, much less threaten to go low.  I did notice that on one of those rounds of 76, I was very comfortable mentally because I had finished reading Putting Out of Your Mind by Bob Rotella the day before and was implementing his techniques.  My ball striking wasn’t great, but I was a peace with myself and not worried about my score or missing any putts.  This leads me to think this is purely psychological.  How do I get past this mental blocker?

I wrote earlier on how I got past a mental blocker hole at Rattlewood by totally changing the way I played it and I’m thinking of taking a similar approach. Normally, at Poolesville, I’m always playing defensive and trying to keep the ball in play with a 3WD off the tee, but that has left me with longer approaches into the smallish crowned greens.  GIR stats plummet and I inevitably leave myself short-sided too often and can’t score well.  Perhaps a total reversal is required, with an attempt to bring the course to its knees by busting driver on every hole,  which should leave shorter irons into the par-4s.  I’m getting inspiration watching Rory McIlroy destroy the field at The Open Championship with the same strategy.

It’s often that when NFL teams go into the prevent defense in an attempt to protect a lead, the lead inevitably vanishes.  Perhaps this is my prevent and I need to get aggressive.  Anyone have some experience handling problem courses?  I’d like to be a horse for this course and I’m all ears.  Thanks!

 

2014 British Open Picks

Hoylake, from golfclubatlas.com

Picking a winner for the 2014 British Open Championship is an exercise in deciphering the actual probabilities of victory from the preferences of the betting public.  There is considerable money to be made betting against the current John Q trend lines.  Consider, U.S. Open Champion Martin Kaymer is at 20:1 in early action with Tiger Woods leaping ahead of him at 16:1.  Are you kidding?  Kaymer is in awesome form, has his head screwed on right, and is a multiple recent major winner.  The smart money is on him and Adam Scott.  Tiger looks about as well oiled as the 38-year old Huffy sitting in my garage with the chain off.  The stiffness and restricted back swing on display at the recent Quicken Loans National  should have Tiger in the 150:1 range.

Rory McIlroy is the pre-tournament favorite at 10:1, but doesn’t play well enough in this perennial home game and will not win it.  He is looking good in early action at the Scottish Open and we’ll be watching to see if the positive momentum he gained from Woz-gate changes his personal and professional performance around major time.

Could one of the B.P.T.N.H.W.A.M. contenders take it this year?  How do you officially get on this list?  Is it fair to keep someone on past the age of 40?  I think not, so Steve Stricker comes off at 47.  Of the five remaining principals, Henrik Stenson has been the closest and doesn’t appear to psych himself out and warrants considerable support.  Sergio Garcia has played well on this course but he doesn’t have the stones with the flat stick to ever win a major.  It’s not happening this week for Matt Kuchar, Dustin Johnson, or Jason Day.  Actually, Day has some good potential, but I’d like to see him  playing more frequently and try less to time his game around the majors.

So, when do we put Jordan Spieth on this list?  He’s clearly one of the best players in the world even if he still can’t order a beer with his wings at Hooters.  I’m a huge Spieth fan and like him for a top 10 but he’s too young for the list and will likely break through at The Masters or U.S. Open.

Dark horse look-outs:  Jim Furyk is at ease with himself again, is playing well, and contended on this venue in 2006.  Every year we see an older player make a move at The Open and this year it’s him.  Phil Mickelson has the mind and experience to win this, but different parts of his game go out of sync too frequently and I fear the age of Phil contending in every major is quickly vanishing.

Your 2014 British Open predictions:

Adam Scott:  Champion

Martin Kaymer:  Runner-up

Jim Furyk:  Sneaks into third

2013 British Open Picks

Back up the armored truck, get out your Muirfield money bags; here come your winning 2013 British Open picks!

It’s a good thing the official odds don’t reflect a player’s actual chance of winning and just the public’s appetite for spending, because the public is looking like a drunken sailor bidding up Tiger Woods as the favorite at 8/1.  He’s coming off an injury and his putting stroke has deserted him again.  Those waiting for the next big win to get back on the Jack Nicklaus record chase can keep waiting.

Did Phil “The Thrill” give us a great ride at the U.S. Open or what?  The difficult aspect of a Mickelson pick is the consistency component.  It’s simply not there, but what you get with Phil is good theater.  I’ve never liked him in the British Open, and except for his final round charge at Royal St. George’s in 2011, he’s been a major underachiever.  This week the roller coaster is heading downhill so keep your billfold in your pocket and Lefty off your board at 25/1.

U.S. Open champion, Justin Rose is suffering from burnout.  Even though I loved the way he finally conquered the unreasonably high expectations he’s dealt with since his miracle British Open finish in 1998, he’s a poor play at 18/1.  At Merion, he didn’t get too excited as he made clutch shot after clutch shot and stuck to his tunnel vision game plan, but the withdraw from the AT&T is a red flag.  I’m hoping he can relax and just play golf but it’s asking too much.

I see much of the same positive mental approach in Mr. Overdue, Jason Day.  The Aussie peaks his game for the majors, a bit like Angel Cabrera, but with more talent and less  results.  One of these days Day is going to break through and I like him here at 33/1.

Rory McIlroy can’t handle the pressure of a home game for some reason and lately, he can’t handle any pressure.  He was in poor form at the Irish Open and missed the cut, and his club destroying tantrum in the U.S. Open was an embarrassment.  Let’s face it, the lad doesn’t handle adversity very well.  Got to keep your cool out there and I’m very cool on him this week.

My favorite play here is a Sunday three-ball bet on Ernie Els, especially if he’s in a group with other big name players.  You will get a good price as people continue to underestimate him because of his age.  He’s in good form after winning the BMW International Open and is simply made for the pressure on the final day of this tournament.  He won it last year, and did as well in 2002 at the same venue, and is a superb pick at 25/1 to win straight up.

Dark horse play:  Padraig Harrington.  40/1 is a good price for Paddy and a top-10 finish is in the offering.  He hasn’t done much as of late, but finished 5th in the 2002 British Open at Muirfield and is a good horses for courses play.

Your 2013 British Open picks:

Champion Golfer of The Year:  Ernie Els in a repeat

Runner Up:  Jason Day starting to look like Mickelson with the runner up finishes.

Third:  Adam Scott gets back on track but not all the way.

Is your warm-up a coffee and a doughnut?

Ever go to a PGA tournament and watch the best players in the world warm-up?  I will park myself at the range for hours and marvel at the machine-like ball striking consistency of a Vijay Singh

Vijay warming up

or the effortless rhythm of a Fred Couples.  Vijay typically warms up with alignment sticks laid out all over the ground, umbrellas stuck in the turf to guide his swing plane, head covers under his armpits, and training aids sprinkled around his station at the ready.  You wonder how the guy gets ready to play with all the mechanical input.  We weekend players love to emulate our heroes on tour but you need to be very careful when it comes to copying their warm-ups.  These guys typically get to the course two hours before their round and condition their bodies and every aspect of their game before play.  We don’t have that luxury.  Usually we grab a coffee and a doughnut and do nothing, or throw on our shoes in the parking lot and rush to the first tee, or buy a bucket of range balls, pound 30 drivers and roll a few putts before heading out.  I’ve tried ’em all and none of them work.

Last year I thought I had this whipped when I tried a new warm-up routine and followed it up with a great round, but soon discovered the routine wasn’t extensible enough to support different practice facilities and different amounts of time.  I can’t count the number of times that I’ve either played with no warm-up or tried to warm-up sensibly and still stumbled out of the blocks.  How frustrating is it when you always need to play three holes to fully engage the golf circuits?

In 2013 I’m determined to find the perfect warm-up routine that will:

1)  put me in the best frame of mind

2)  put me in the best physical condition

3)  have me looking good doing it (got to avoid the Miguel Angel Jimenez  10-200 scenario.)

So coming soon are two warm-up routines constructed from a combination of exercises out of my workout regimen, and from trial and error at the golf course.  Look for the:

A)  Economy warm-up (10 minutes)

B)  Business Class warm-up (30-60 minutes)

Send me your ideas to help move this along and I’ll try the good ones.  Thanks!

2012 British Open Picks

This year’s British Open Championshipwill go to the player who can mentally withstand the rigors and punishment of a tough links style golf course and embrace the experience for what it is.  History with the event is almost as important as good form, which is why guys like Tom Watson continue to contend late into their 50s and 60s.  Not saying Watson is a first pager but I would not be surprised if an old timer challenges through a couple of rounds.  The last time The Open was contested at Lytham and St. Annes

Royal Lytham and St Annes

was in 1996 and Jack Nicklaus, at age 56, was tied for 3^rd after two rounds which sent a chill up everyone’s spine.  Nothing changes much in Open golf from year to year and most of the usual contenders should be right there on Sunday.

The principals:

With his recent successes, Tiger Woods is the overwhelming favorite in most betting houses and warrants significant action.  Tiger last played at this venue as an amateur and finished tied for 22^nd.  His performance in the 2012 majors has been lackluster and his missed cut at Greenbriar perplexing.  Yes, with his tour leading three wins, we can say Tiger is back, but I’m not convinced.  The Tiger of yesteryear didn’t miss cuts in ANY events and Greenbriar will be the second in his last six tournaments.  The greatness potential and mental toughness are there, the consistency is not.  The best case for Tiger is that the rest of the world’s best are playing lousy right now.

Got a sneaky good feeling about Ernie Els this week.  He was in good form at the U.S. Open and finished in the top ten.  He finished second at this venue in 1996 so he probably likes the course, and the style of play suits his game and personality.

I’m off the Rory McIlroy bandwagon.  Show me some consistency before I’ll ride again.

Lee Westwood, clearly has inherited the title of Best Player To Have Never Won A Major.  Off his game at Alstom last week with a tie for 40th but will contend this week.  As usual, needs help on the greens.

Defending champion Darren Clarke had his 15 minutes of fame and will not contend.

On the rise:  Dustin Johnson is making a speedy recovery from his back problems, has been in good form as of late, and finished tied for second last year.  I like his chances.

How does bright orange contrasted against a bleak grey sky coming down the stretch with the lead on Sunday sound?  Yes, Rickie Fowler has a good record at The Open and was hot earlier in the year.  That final round 84 at The Memorial still bugs me, but I’m warming to his chances.

Mojo pick:  Justin Rose.  He’s finished 21st at the U.S. Open but last five European events have been top 10s.  Wish he’d play a little more but I think he could be ready.  Sensing a big week.

Final 2012 Open Picks:

It doesn’t take much courage to pick Tiger to win the Claret Jug but he gets it done on mental toughness and is back on the major chase.

Runner up:  Lee Westwood; title retained. . . AGAIN.

Third:  Ernie Els; Big Easy gets close but no cigar.